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Vehicle Sales Forecast: “Could Reach 17 Million” SAAR in November

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Vehicle Sales Forecast: “Could Reach 17 Million” SAAR in November

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR. Note:  There were 25 selling days in November this year compared to 26 last...
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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Inflation, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Inflation, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Goldman Sachs has a model that divides the business cycle into four stages: early-cycle, mid-cycle, late-cycle and recession.  According to Goldman economist Kris Dawsey, the economy appears to be transitioning from early to mid-cycle (but not late-cycle or worse): The likelihood of the economy showing...
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Tips for Real Estate Investors

Tips for Real Estate Investors

Investors are attracted to investing in real estate because the potential for profit is tremendous.  However, the possibility of losing it all is always lurking in the back of investors’ minds because, as with any investment, there is risk involved. Successful real estate investing...
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Tuesday: Homebuilder survey, PPI

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Tuesday: Homebuilder survey, PPI

Some excellent research from the NY Fed Liberty Street Economics: Measuring Labor Market Slack: Are the Long-Term Unemployed Different?. The conclusion: e find that long-term unemployed workers are not less attached to the labor market than short-term unemployed workers. If anything, the long-term unemployed...
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Schedule for Week of November 16th

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Schedule for Week of November 16th

The key economic reports this week are October housing starts on Wednesday, and October existing home sales on Thursday. For manufacturing, the October Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the November NY Fed (Empire State), Philly Fed and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys,...
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Friday: Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency Survey

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Friday: Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency Survey

One of the keys in the retail sales report will be sales ex-gasoline. From the WSJ: On Your Shopping List: Three Things to Watch in the Retail Sales Report onsider retail performance excluding gasoline stations. Retail sales are reported nominally and gas prices have...
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Wednesday: Small Business Optimism

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Wednesday: Small Business Optimism

From the LA Times: West Coast port slowdown raises fears of dockworker strike or lockout A six-year agreement covering nearly 20,000 dockworkers at 29 West Coast ports expired July 1. The sides have been negotiating since May. In 2002, amid talks for a previous...
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Employment: Party Like It’s 1999!

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Employment: Party Like It’s 1999!

As of the October BLS report, the economy has added 2.225 million private sector jobs, and 2.285 million total jobs in 2014. To be the best year since 1999, the economy needs to add an additional 176 thousand private sector jobs (probably happen in...
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Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 2%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up only 6%

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Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 2%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up only 6%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):...
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