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Altos Research National Report | September 2011


Since a peak in early July, we’ve seen week over week cooling of the housing market. The spring price and inventory bumps are over and we’re settling in for a long, cold winter.

Prices decreased in seventeen markets this month (seven markets reported a decrease in prices last month). In the markets that experienced increases in prices, the increases were small. The weekly-sampled prices are still trending downward and the 90-day prices have begun their descent (illustrated in Figure 1). The 90-day prices were flattening last month. The declining curve will become more pronounced as the market continues to cool.

The loss of momentum from the summer market activity is unmistakable. Transaction statistics published by S&P/Case-Shiller will show the same loss of momentum in a few months.

Figure 1: 7-Day List Price of Single Family Homes in the 20-City Composite (black line) has continued the downward trend, confirming the end of the summer market and the beginning of a long, cold winter. The 90-Day List Price of Single Family Homes (orange line) has gone from flattening last month to trending downward this month.

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