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Oil Rigs “Oil rig counts take a breather”

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Oil Rigs “Oil rig counts take a breather”

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Feb 23, 2018: • Total US oil rigs took an anticipated breather this week, +1 to 799 • Horizontal oil rigs were up, +1 to 697…• The oil price continues to recover • If rig count additions continue on our forecast trajectory,...
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House Prices and Inventory

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House Prices and Inventory

This will be an interesting year for housing. With the tax changes – and rising mortgage rates – a key question is: What will be the impact on housing? The answer is no one knows for sure. For the possible impact of tax changes on housing, see: Question #10 for 2018: Will the New...
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Las Vegas: Record Convention Attendance in 2017, Visitor Traffic off Slightly

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Las Vegas: Record Convention Attendance in 2017, Visitor Traffic off Slightly

During the recession, I wrote about the troubles in Las Vegas and included a chart of visitor and convention attendance: Lost Vegas. Since then Las Vegas visitor traffic recovered to new record highs. However, in 2017, visitor traffic declined 1.7% compared to 2016, but was still 8% above the pre-recession peak. Convention attendance is...
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Schedule for Week of Feb 18, 2018

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Schedule for Week of Feb 18, 2018

The key economic report this week is January existing home sales. —– Monday, Feb 12th —–All US markets are closed in observance of the Presidents’ Day holiday. —– Tuesday, Feb 13th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Wednesday, Feb 14th —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the...
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Earlier: Philly and NY Fed Manufacturing Surveys Showed Growth in February

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Earlier: Philly and NY Fed Manufacturing Surveys Showed Growth in February

Earlier from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity continued to expand in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to 13.1, suggesting a somewhat slower pace of growth than in January. … Labor market...
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Goldman: “The 2018 Inflation Rebound”

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Goldman: “The 2018 Inflation Rebound”

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven: The 2018 Inflation Rebound Using our top-down and bottom-up core PCE models, we project that both macroeconomic fundamentals as well as sector-specific factors are likely to push core inflation meaningfully higher this year.…We highlight three key drivers of the core PCE...
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Schedule for Week of Feb 11, 2018

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Schedule for Week of Feb 11, 2018

The key economic reports this week are January Housing Starts, Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). For manufacturing, January industrial production, and the February New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Feb 12th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Feb 13th —–6:00 AM ET:...
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Another Government Shutdown?

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Another Government Shutdown?

From CNBC: White House instructs government agencies to prepare for shutdown The Trump administration instructed federal agencies to get ready for a possible government shutdown as Congress moved closer to the midnight Thursday deadline without passing a funding bill, CNBC confirmed. An Office of Management and Budget official said the office is preparing for...
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“Mortgage Rates Head Back Toward Recent Highs”

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“Mortgage Rates Head Back Toward Recent Highs”

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Head Back Toward Recent Highs Mortgage rates were mixed today, with most lenders offering slightly better terms this morning compared to yesterday’s mid-day levels. Things took a turn for the worse in the afternoon as the stock market recovery pulled money back out of bonds....
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U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Decline Slightly in 2017, Lowest since 2006

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U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Decline Slightly in 2017, Lowest since 2006

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Fall 0.7% – Smallest 12-Month Decline Since 2010 Bankruptcy filings in the 12-month period ending December 31, 2017, fell just 0.7 percent, compared with bankruptcy cases filed in calendar year 2016. According to newly released data, 789,020 cases were filed in 2017, compared with 794,960 in the previous...
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