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Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success

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Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success

Note: This is a repeat of a June post with updated statistics and graph. There are a number of observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy success.  My view is there are many measures of success - and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people...
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Mortgage Rates Fall below 4%, Lowest since November 2016

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Mortgage Rates Fall below 4%, Lowest since November 2016

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Trump Administration Drama Pushing Rates Even Lower Mortgage rates fell yesterday in response to a tweet about Trump disbanding his councils of CEOs.  Twitter was in play again today.  This time around it was Gary Cohn, Trump’s economic advisor.  Rather, it was rumors of Cohn’s departure that sent financial...
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Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

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Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

Two notes from Tim Duy at Fed Watch. First a few excerpts from: Retail Sales, Dudley, Wages 5.) But – and I think this is important – financial conditions continue to easy despite rate hikes: Now the reason why I think you’d want to continue to gradually remove monetary policy...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Aug 13, 2017 • The Housing Bottom and Comparing Housing Recoveries Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 futures are up 7, and DOW futures are up 65 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts

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Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on August 9, down from 3.7 percent on August 4. From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q3. The...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: New 2017 Lows for Rates, But There’s a Catch Mortgage rates fell to new lows for the year today, following the North Korea nuclear threat headlines.  In truth, the preceding sentence gives too much credit to geopolitical risk.  Rates were already drifting very close to the lowest levels since...
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Schedule for Week of Aug 6, 2017

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Schedule for Week of Aug 6, 2017

The key economic report this week is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). —– Monday, Aug 7th —–10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). 3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for a .0 billion increase in credit. —– Tuesday, Aug 8th —–6:00 AM...
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Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

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Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 190k in July … Our forecast reflects generally favorable labor market fundamentals and a potential boost from evolving seasonality, as July job growth has been strong in recent years in both the establishment and household...
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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.76 million annual rate in July

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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.76 million annual rate in July

Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 16.76 million SAAR in July. That is down 6% from July 2016, and up 1% from last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light...
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July 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 134 Institutions

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July 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 134 Institutions

Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 2017. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for July 2017.  It was a quiet month for changes to the...
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