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FOMC Preview

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FOMC Preview

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting. A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands...
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Employment: August Diffusion Indexes

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Employment: August Diffusion Indexes

I haven’t posted this in a few months. The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 53.5 in August, down from 57.8 in July. For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 51.3, down from 53.9 in August. Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The...
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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low

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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for July today. According to Black Knight, 3.46% of mortgages were delinquent in July, down slightly from 3.61% in July 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.57% a year ago. This gives a total of 3.95% delinquent...
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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

By request, here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker. NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero...
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Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Index

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Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Index

Thursday:• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 156,000 added in July. • At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand...
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Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

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Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 1, 2019 Tuesday:• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 51.5, up from 51.2 in July. • Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending From CNBC: Pre-Market...
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Schedule for Week of September 1, 2019

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Schedule for Week of September 1, 2019

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, August auto sales, and the July trade deficit. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion on Friday. For data nerds, the BLS will release their update Labor Force Projections...
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2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business

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2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business

On October 23rd, I will be one of three speakers at the “2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business” in Newport Beach, California, sponsored by the Newport Beach Chamber of Commerce. UCI Finance Professor Christopher Schwarz and I will be discussing the 2020 economic outlook, and Dr. Richard Afable will...
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 August The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 11-17 August 2019, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 12-18 August 2018, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy:...
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