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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 20, 2019 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 9 and DOW futures are up 78 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at .60 per barrel and Brent at .14 barrel. ...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%

From Merrill Lynch: Weak inventories data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.5% qoq saar. emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 1.1% for 2019:Q4. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow...
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Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production

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Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for September. The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, down from 1.364 million SAAR. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 210,000 last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed...
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Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

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Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph. The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California. The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006). The number of...
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Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019

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Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019

The key economic reports this week are September Housing Starts and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Oct 14th —–Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open....
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Houston Real Estate in September: Sales up 9.5% YoY, Inventory Up 7%

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Houston Real Estate in September: Sales up 9.5% YoY, Inventory Up 7%

Another hot regional market in September. From the HAR: The Houston Housing Market Shows no Letup in September Houston home sales registered the seventh positive month of 2019 in September as consumers continued to take advantage of low mortgage interest rates, keeping a market that normally slows down this time of year buzzing. According...
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Schedule for Week of October 6, 2019

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Schedule for Week of October 6, 2019

The key report this week is the September CPI on Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on data dependence on Tuesday. —– Monday, Oct 7th —–3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve. —– Tuesday, Oct 8th —–6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September. 8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September...
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Comments on September Employment Report

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Comments on September Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 135 thousand for September ex-Census (136K total including temp Census hires) was below consensus expectations of 145 thousand, however the previous two months were revised up 45 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate declined to 3.5%; the lowest rate since 1969. Earlier: September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment...
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 8.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 27, 2019. … The Refinance Index increased 14 percent from the previous week and was 133...
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Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 4.7%

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Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 4.7%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q3 2019, unchanged from 4.7% in Q2, and unchanged from 4.7% in Q3 2018. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.1% in 2016. From economist Barbara Byrne Denham at Reis: The apartment vacancy rate was...
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