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Schedule for Week of December 9, 2018

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Schedule for Week of December 9, 2018

The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, November industrial production will be released this week. —– Monday, Dec 10th —–10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red...
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Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Non-Mfg, Q3 Flow of Funds

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Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Non-Mfg, Q3 Flow of Funds

Thursday:• At 8:15 AM ET, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 175,000 jobs added, down from 227,000 in October. • At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, down...
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Tuesday: Corelogic House Prices

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Tuesday: Corelogic House Prices

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Now at 2-Month Lows Mortgage rates didn’t really improve today for the average lender, but they did manage to hit the lowest rates in 2 months on a technicality. The reason for this is simple. There was a big gap between the rates seen on...
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Schedule for Week of December 2, 2018

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Schedule for Week of December 2, 2018

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the November ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, November auto sales, and the October trade deficit. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the Economic Outlook on Wednesday. —– Monday, Dec 3rd —–10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The...
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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.71%, down from 0.73% in September. Freddie’s rate is down from 0.86% in October 2017. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since January 2008. These are mortgage loans...
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Wednesday: New Home Sales, GDP, Fed Chair Powell, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

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Wednesday: New Home Sales, GDP, Fed Chair Powell, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3nd quarter 2018 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.5% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the advance estimate of GDP. • At 10:00 AM,...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 25, 2018 • “Is a Recession Coming?” • Oil Prices Down Year-over-year Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data...
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“Is a Recession Coming?”

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“Is a Recession Coming?”

Derek Thompson at The Atlantic asked me about my views on an imminent recession in this excellent overview: Is a Recession Coming? Thompson concluded: If you’re going to worry, you should worry about three things: exports, China, and maybe the looming shadow of corporate debt. But nothing in the economy seems to predict an...
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in October

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in October

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. In the past month, the...
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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY

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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY

Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: • Bay Area home sales dipped by 8 percent year over year in October; however, the 19 percent increase from September was the highest monthly increase between September and October going back to 1990. • Santa Clara County and East Bay...
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