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Small Business Optimism Index decreased in October

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Small Business Optimism Index decreased in October

CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the “Single Most Important Problem”. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): October 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Optimism Index shed a modest 0.5 points, with slight declines in five components, no...
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Schedule for Week of November 11, 2018

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Schedule for Week of November 11, 2018

The key economic reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, October industrial production, and the November New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Nov 12th —–Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will...
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Homebuilder D.R. Horton: Housing Market “Choppy”, “momentum is slipping”

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Homebuilder D.R. Horton: Housing Market “Choppy”, “momentum is slipping”

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November). A few comments via Bloomberg from homebuilder D.R.Horton: (HT Brian) Rising home...
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Offtopic: Don’t Just Vote. Vote for Democrats

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Offtopic: Don’t Just Vote. Vote for Democrats

If you read my site, you know I’m focused on the facts.   Donald Trump has always been at war with the data. From 2016: Trump says he thinks the US unemployment rate is close to 20 percent and not the 5 percent reported by the Labor Department. Anyone who believes the 5 percent...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 4, 2018 • Goldman Sachs on Housing Slowdown Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for a decrease to 59.4 from 61.6. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 6 and DOW futures are down 60 (fair...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts

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Q4 GDP Forecasts

From Goldman Sachs: Q4 2.6% (qoq ar). .emphasis added From Merrill Lynch: e revise down 4Q GDP to 2.8% from 3.0% . And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

Thursday:• At All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for 17.0 million SAAR in October, down from the BEA estimate of 17.36 million SAAR in September 2018 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). • At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 212 thousand initial...
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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Near Recent Lows as Busy Week Begins Mortgage rates didn’t move today, despite a fair amount of underlying market volatility. … Holding steady today means that rates remain at their lowest levels in just over 2 weeks. That sounds like a good thing, but...
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Schedule for Week of October 28, 2018

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Schedule for Week of October 28, 2018

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing index, October auto sales, Personal Income and Outlays for September, Case-Shiller house prices for August, and the September trade deficit. For manufacturing, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week. —– Monday,...
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Chemical Activity Barometer “Begins to Cool” in October

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Chemical Activity Barometer “Begins to Cool” in October

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Begins To Cool At Start of 4th Quarter; Year-Over-Year Growth Continues To Ease he Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.2 percent gain in...
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