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2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear

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2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear

CR Note: Gone hiking! I will return on Thursday, Oct 4th. In December 2007, most analysts were still dramatically underestimating the probabe losses for lenders and financial institutions. Here is an article from the WSJ quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go? The global race is on to find the best...
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A few Comments on August New Home Sales

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A few Comments on August New Home Sales

New home sales for August were reported at 629,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was close to the consensus forecast, however the three previous months were revised down significantly. Sales in August were up 12.7% year-over-year compared to August 2017.   This was strong YoY growth, however this was an...
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Chicago Fed “Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August”

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Chicago Fed “Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August”

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at +0.18 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in...
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Oil Rigs Decline Slightly

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Oil Rigs Decline Slightly

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on September 21, 2018: • Oil rigs declined, -1 to 866 • Horizontal oil rigs fell, -3 to 766…• Horizontal oil rigs are essentially unchanged in the last 14 weeks • The Permian added 3 rigs, the Cana Woodford was hammered with a...
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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Flow of Funds

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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Flow of Funds

Note: The weekly claims report will be for the week ending September 15th. Hurricane Florence impacted the Carolinas starting around September 13th, so there might be some increase in claims due to the hurricane, but it is more likely a bump in claims will happen this week (to be reported next week). Thursday:• At...
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Lawler: Spotlight Seattle: Inventory Shortage Abating Rapidly

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Lawler: Spotlight Seattle: Inventory Shortage Abating Rapidly

Tuesday:At 10:00 AM ET, The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  67, unchanged from 67 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From housing economist Tom Lawler: Spotlight Seattle: Inventory Shortage Abating Rapidly Here are some August residential sales...
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Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

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Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales. • At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to...
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Wednesday: PPI, Beige Book

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Wednesday: PPI, Beige Book

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. • At 2:00 PM, the Federal...
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Wednesday: PPI, Beige Book

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Wednesday: PPI, Beige Book

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. • At 2:00 PM, the Federal...
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Oil Rigs: RIg counts move sideways, again

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Oil Rigs: RIg counts move sideways, again

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on September 7, 2018:”That’s all, folks!” • Oil rigs declined, -2 to 860 • Horizontal oil rigs gained, +1 to 766…• Horizontal oil rigs have gone exactly nowhere in the last 12 weeks • The breakeven oil price to add horizontal oil rigs...
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