From Merrill Lynch 4Q tracking rose to 2.0% qoq saar, boosted by trade and inventories data. emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.0% for 2020:Q1. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate...
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Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 3.5% in November, down 0.2 percentage points year-over-year. Currently the FOMC is forecasting the unemployment rate will be in the 3.5% to...
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Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October 2019. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. • Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 3.2% year-over-year increase in the National index for October. Calculated Risk
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Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2020. The key indicators include this week are Case-Shiller House Prices for October and the December ISM manufacturing index. —– Monday, Dec 30th —–9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.1%...
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Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 8) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) picked up in the second half of 2019, and new home sales were up about 10% in 2019 compared to 2020.  Note: RI is...
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Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased in 2019 after increasing in 2018. Will inventory increase or decrease in 2020? Tracking housing inventory is very helpful in understanding the housing market....
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At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don’t have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen...
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From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further in December The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the December Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity decreased further in December...
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From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13, 2019. … The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 135...
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Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 15, 2019 • Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, up from 2.9. • At 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for...
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