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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

From Goldman Sachs: The May core PCE price index increased 0.19% month-over-month, close to expectations, but the year-over-year exceeded consensus by a tenth reflecting the price revisions in yesterday’s GDP report. Personal spending increased by 0.4% and was revised higher in April, and the personal saving rate remained flat at 6.1%. We left our...
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 21, 2019. … The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 23, 2019 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 1 and DOW...
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BLS: Unemployment Rates in May at New Series Lows in Texas and Vermont

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BLS: Unemployment Rates in May at New Series Lows in Texas and Vermont

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in May in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.… Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in May, 2.1 percent. The rates in...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, down from 222 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 14.0, down from 16.6. Calculated Risk
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Tuesday: Housing Starts

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Tuesday: Housing Starts

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat, But Risks Will Increase From Here Mortgage rates were only modestly higher today. Most lenders were still quoting the same rates compared to Friday with the only difference being slightly higher upfront costs. This means the rate at the top of the average...
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Schedule for Week of June 16, 2019

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Schedule for Week of June 16, 2019

The key reports this week are May housing starts and existing home sales. For manufacturing, the June New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting. —– Monday, June 17th —–8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State...
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Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

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Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Friday:• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.7% increase in retail sales. • At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to...
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LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in May

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LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in May

Special note: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. On the impact of the...
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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in May

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in May

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falls in May The Dodge Momentum Index fell 1.0% in May to 141.0 (2000=100) from the revised April reading of 142.4. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which...
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