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Q2 GDP: Investment

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Q2 GDP: Investment

First, the BEA released revisions of GDP data from 2014 through Q1 2017.  In general, GDP was revised up slightly, although residential investment was revised down a little.  Not a significant change. The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average)....
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 21, 2017. … The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 23, 2017 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.58 million SAAR, down from 5.62 million in May. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.59 million SAAR for June. From...
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Oil Rigs decline slightly

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Oil Rigs decline slightly

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on July 21, 2017: • Total US oil rigs were down 1 to 764 • Horizontal oil rigs were down 2 to 653…• WTI seems sufficient to restrain US oil rig count growth • However, shale well productivity yoy continues to surge based...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 3-Week Lows Although today’s rates aren’t appreciably lower than yesterday’s, they’re technically the best we’ve seen since June 28th.  More lenders are quoting top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates of 4.0% instead of 4.125%, and some of the aggressive lenders are back down to...
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Tuesday: Homebuilder Survey

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Tuesday: Homebuilder Survey

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Higher Despite Friendly Market Movement Mortgage rates are largely dictated by movements in bond markets–specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS).  When bonds improve, prices rise and investors are willing to pay more to buy loans.  This results in rates moving lower.  In other words, bond market improvement =...
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Schedule for Week of July 16, 2017

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Schedule for Week of July 16, 2017

The key economic report this week is June Housing Starts on Wednesday. For manufacturing, the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, July 17th —–8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 19.8. —–...
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Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 6%, Inventory down 10% YoY

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Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 6%, Inventory down 10% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in June were up 6.5% year-over-year. 2) Active inventory is now down 10.2% year-over-year.  More inventory (a theme in most of 2014)...
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AAR: Rail Traffic increased in June

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AAR: Rail Traffic increased in June

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. rail traffic in June 2017 was a mix of the good and the not so good. The good included intermodal, which was up 4.6% in June and 2.7% (179,515 containers and trailers) for the year to date....
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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump

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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump

Here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, or any other marker. NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for...
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