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Wednesday: New Home Sales, GDP, Fed Chair Powell, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

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Wednesday: New Home Sales, GDP, Fed Chair Powell, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3nd quarter 2018 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.5% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the advance estimate of GDP. • At 10:00 AM,...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 25, 2018 • “Is a Recession Coming?” • Oil Prices Down Year-over-year Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data...
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“Is a Recession Coming?”

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“Is a Recession Coming?”

Derek Thompson at The Atlantic asked me about my views on an imminent recession in this excellent overview: Is a Recession Coming? Thompson concluded: If you’re going to worry, you should worry about three things: exports, China, and maybe the looming shadow of corporate debt. But nothing in the economy seems to predict an...
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in October

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in October

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. In the past month, the...
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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY

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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY

Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: • Bay Area home sales dipped by 8 percent year over year in October; however, the 19 percent increase from September was the highest monthly increase between September and October going back to 1990. • Santa Clara County and East Bay...
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Schedule for Week of November 18, 2018

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Schedule for Week of November 18, 2018

The key economic reports this week are October Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. Happy Thanksgiving! —– Monday, Nov 19th —–10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  68, unchanged from 68. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. —–...
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Earlier: NY Fed Mfg “Solid”, Philly Fed Mfg “Slowed” in November

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Earlier: NY Fed Mfg “Solid”, Philly Fed Mfg “Slowed” in November

Earlier: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 23.3. …The index for number of employees moved up...
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Small Business Optimism Index decreased in October

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Small Business Optimism Index decreased in October

CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the “Single Most Important Problem”. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): October 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Optimism Index shed a modest 0.5 points, with slight declines in five components, no...
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Schedule for Week of November 11, 2018

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Schedule for Week of November 11, 2018

The key economic reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, October industrial production, and the November New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Nov 12th —–Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will...
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Homebuilder D.R. Horton: Housing Market “Choppy”, “momentum is slipping”

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Homebuilder D.R. Horton: Housing Market “Choppy”, “momentum is slipping”

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November). A few comments via Bloomberg from homebuilder D.R.Horton: (HT Brian) Rising home...
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