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The Impact of the Government Shutdown on the January Employment Report

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The Impact of the Government Shutdown on the January Employment Report

If the government shutdown continues through this coming week, then the unemployment rate in the January report will be negatively impacted. This is a key week since it is the reference week for the BLS report (contains the 12th of the month). If the shutdown continues through next weekend, Federal employees who are on...
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Comments on December Employment Report

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Comments on December Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 312 thousand for December was well above consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 58 thousand, combined. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. This was a strong report. Earlier: December Employment Report: 312,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate In December, the year-over-year...
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CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.1% Year-over-year in November

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CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.1% Year-over-year in November

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports November Home Prices Increased by 5.1 Percent Year Over Year CoreLogic® … today released the CoreLogic Home...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 30, 2018 Monday:• At 10:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 12 and DOW futures are up 130 (fair value). Oil prices were...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

From Goldman Sachs: We also lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.6% (qoq ar). emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales (Postponed)

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales (Postponed)

Note: New Home sales will not be released on Thursday due to the Government Shutdown. From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Higher Today or Tomorrow Mortgage rates were unchanged in some cases today and higher in others. The discrepancy is a result of the timing of today’s market movements. The most...
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Ten Economic Questions for 2019

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Ten Economic Questions for 2019

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2018. Below are my ten questions for 2019. I’ll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework to think about how the U.S. economy will perform in 2019, and – when there...
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Schedule for Week of December 23, 2018

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Schedule for Week of December 23, 2018

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! The key economic reports this week are November New Home sales, and October Case-Shiller House Prices. Note: If the government is shutdown, the new home sales report will probably be delayed. —– Monday, Dec 24th —–8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite...
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Friday: GDP, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Outlays

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Friday: GDP, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Outlays

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in durable goods orders. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.5% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the second estimate of...
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Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Announcement

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Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Announcement

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.19 million SAAR, down from 5.22 million. • During the day, The AIA’s Architecture...
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