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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

From Merrill Lynch: The collapse in construction spending and soft inventories cut 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.8% qoq saar from the advance 2.1% print. … we revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to a trend-like 1.7% qoq saar from 1.2%. emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We...
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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June

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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.70% in June, from 0.70% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.97% in June 2018. These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in...
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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in June

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in June

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.63%, unchanged from 0.63% in May. Freddie’s rate is down from 0.82% in June 2018. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This equals the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since November 2007. These are mortgage loans...
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Schedule for Week of July 28, 2019

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Schedule for Week of July 28, 2019

The key report this week is the July employment report. Other key reports include Personal Income and Outlays for June,  Case-Shiller house prices for May, and the Trade deficit for June. For manufacturing, the July Dallas Fed, and the July ISM manufacturing surveys will be released. The FOMC meets this week, and the Fed...
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Kansas City Fed: “Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July”

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Kansas City Fed: “Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July”

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity was largely unchanged in...
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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.27 million in June A few key points: 1) The key for housing – and the overall economy – is new home sales, single family housing starts and overall residential investment. Overall, this is still a somewhat reasonable level for existing home sales.  No worries. 2) Inventory is...
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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4.7% YoY in Q2, Inventory up 11% YoY

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California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4.7% YoY in Q2, Inventory up 11% YoY

From Compass chief economist Selma Hepp: How did the spur of IPOs impact Bay Area housing markets? • Higher-end sales surged. While the total number of homes sold in the second quarter trended below last year by about 5 percent, higher-priced sales, above million, surged again bringing second quarter sales in line with last...
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Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book

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Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.260 million SAAR, down from 1.269 million SAAR in May. • During the day, The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for June (a...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 14, 2019 Monday:• At 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 0.5, up from -8.6. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value). Oil prices were up...
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Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019

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Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019

At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don’t have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen...
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