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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 4, 2018 • Goldman Sachs on Housing Slowdown Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for a decrease to 59.4 from 61.6. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 6 and DOW futures are down 60 (fair...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts

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Q4 GDP Forecasts

From Goldman Sachs: Q4 2.6% (qoq ar). .emphasis added From Merrill Lynch: e revise down 4Q GDP to 2.8% from 3.0% . And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

Thursday:• At All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for 17.0 million SAAR in October, down from the BEA estimate of 17.36 million SAAR in September 2018 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). • At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 212 thousand initial...
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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Near Recent Lows as Busy Week Begins Mortgage rates didn’t move today, despite a fair amount of underlying market volatility. … Holding steady today means that rates remain at their lowest levels in just over 2 weeks. That sounds like a good thing, but...
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Schedule for Week of October 28, 2018

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Schedule for Week of October 28, 2018

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing index, October auto sales, Personal Income and Outlays for September, Case-Shiller house prices for August, and the September trade deficit. For manufacturing, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week. —– Monday,...
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Chemical Activity Barometer “Begins to Cool” in October

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Chemical Activity Barometer “Begins to Cool” in October

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Begins To Cool At Start of 4th Quarter; Year-Over-Year Growth Continues To Ease he Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.2 percent gain in...
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Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent

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Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent

Here is a graph I haven’t updated in some time. From the Census Bureau “Started and Completed by Purpose of Construction” through Q2 2018. This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and...
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined Slightly Year-over-year

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined Slightly Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: US hotel results for week ending 13 October The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 7-13 October 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 8-14 October 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -0.7% to...
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Merrill on House Prices

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Merrill on House Prices

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch note on house prices: Home prices nationally, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index are running at 6.0% yoy as of the latest data in July. Assuming some modest slowing into the end of the year, we believe we are on track for home prices to...
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decline in Latest MBA Weekly Surve Mortgage applications decreased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 12, 2018. This week’s results didn’t include adjustment for the Columbus Day holiday. … The Refinance...
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