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Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey

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Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 14, 2018 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in retail sales. • At 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 19.3, up...
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Oil Rigs Increase Sharply

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Oil Rigs Increase Sharply

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on October 12, 2018: • Oil rigs were up sharply this week, +8 to 869 • Horizontal oil rigs similarly rose, +8 to 772…• This report is deceptively bullish, as ‘Other US’ added 8 horizontal oil rigs, of which perhaps 4-6 are likely...
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Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims and 2019 COLA

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Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims and 2019 COLA

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, up from 207 thousand the previous week. • At 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase...
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Tuesday: Small Business Survey

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Tuesday: Small Business Survey

Tuesday:• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September. Calculated Risk
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Schedule for Week of October 7, 2018

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Schedule for Week of October 7, 2018

The key economic report this week is the September Consumer Price Index (CPI). —– Monday, Oct 8th —–Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open. No economic releases are scheduled. —– Tuesday, Oct 9th —–6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September. —–...
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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit and some Hiking Pictures

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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit and some Hiking Pictures

My September Employment Preview Goldman: September Payrolls Preview Friday:• At 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, down from the 201,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.8%. • At 8:30 AM,...
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Schedule for Week of September 30, 2018

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Schedule for Week of September 30, 2018

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the September ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, September auto sales, and the August trade deficit. —– Monday, Oct 1st —–10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The...
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2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear

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2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear

CR Note: Gone hiking! I will return on Thursday, Oct 4th. In December 2007, most analysts were still dramatically underestimating the probabe losses for lenders and financial institutions. Here is an article from the WSJ quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go? The global race is on to find the best...
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A few Comments on August New Home Sales

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A few Comments on August New Home Sales

New home sales for August were reported at 629,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was close to the consensus forecast, however the three previous months were revised down significantly. Sales in August were up 12.7% year-over-year compared to August 2017.   This was strong YoY growth, however this was an...
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Chicago Fed “Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August”

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Chicago Fed “Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August”

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at +0.18 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in...
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