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Long Beach Port Traffic “Dips” in July

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Long Beach Port Traffic “Dips” in July

From the Port of Long Beach: July Container Volumes Dip in Long Beach The Port of Long Beach saw a decline in container volumes in July compared to the same month a year ago, which hit a historic high that has since been surpassed. The drop, 4.4 percent, was attributed to shipping alliances’ decisions...
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Schedule for Week of August 12, 2018

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Schedule for Week of August 12, 2018

The key economic reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, July industrial production, and the August New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Aug 13th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Aug 14th —–6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July....
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Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle

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Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: Political Business Cycle (PBC) models were a hot topic in the 1980s. In the standard “opportunist” PBC model incumbent politicians have an incentive to stimulate the economy going into elections because the benefits-low unemployment-materialize quickly and the costs-high inflation-occur with a lag. … After playing...
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BLS: Job Openings “Little Changed” in June

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BLS: Job Openings “Little Changed” in June

Notes: In June there were 6.662 million job openings, and, according to the June Employment report, there were 6.564 million unemployed. So, for the third consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015. From the...
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Schedule for Week of August 5, 2018

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Schedule for Week of August 5, 2018

The key economic report this week is the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. —– Monday, Aug 6th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Aug 7th —–10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and...
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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

My July Employment Preview Goldman: July Payrolls Preview Friday:• At 8:30 AM, Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 213,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.9%. • Also at...
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Wednesday: FOMC Announcement., ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

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Wednesday: FOMC Announcement., ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 172,000 payroll jobs added in July, up from 177,000 added in...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 29, 2018 Monday:• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data...
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Housing comments from Soylent Green

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Housing comments from Soylent Green

Long term readers will remember mortgage broker “Soylent Green is People”. He sent me these comments on housing that I’ll pass along: “A bit of a panic is breaking out amongst my Realtor friends. Sales are down. There are more cancellations right before closings than usual. Builders are getting a few drop outs as...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 207 thousand the previous week. • At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.2% increase in durable goods orders. •...
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