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Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike

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Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike

Expectations of a March rate hike have increased significantly over the last few days. Some market based measures now show an 80%+ chance of a rate hike. A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research: The market has moved dramatically in the past two days to price in a hike at the March meeting. This...
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Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded in February

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Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded in February

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded; Capacity Utilization Rose Sharply Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in February, as shipments increased and the volume of new orders rose broadly, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Employment gains were more common and longer workweeks prevailed. Wage increases were more...
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Schedule for Week of Feb 26, 2017

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Schedule for Week of Feb 26, 2017

The key economic report this week is the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Other key indicators include the February ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, February auto sales, and the Case-Shiller house price index. —– Monday, Feb 27th —–8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.8%...
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Friday: New Home Sales

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Friday: New Home Sales

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg Whom to Listen to in the Fed Minutes When it comes to the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, not all central bank policy makers are created equally. There are “participants” — all the policy makers in the room — and there are “members,” those who have a...
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Don’t like the data? Change it!

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Don’t like the data? Change it!

From the WSJ: Trump Administration Considers Change in Calculating U.S. Trade Deficit The Trump administration is considering changing the way it calculates U.S. trade deficits, a shift that would make the country’s trade gap appear larger than it had in past years … The leading idea under consideration would exclude from U.S. exports any...
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January Based on publicly-available state and/or local realtor/MLS reports released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million, up 2.0% from December’s preliminary...
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Thursday: Housing Starts, Philly Fed Mfg, Q4 Household Debt and Credit

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Thursday: Housing Starts, Philly Fed Mfg, Q4 Household Debt and Credit

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Approach 3-Week Highs Mortgage rates rose for the 5th day in a row following a higher reading in this morning’s inflation data and an upbeat Retail Sales report. … Today’s increase brings mortgage rates close to their highest level in 3 weeks. You’d have to...
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Tuesday: Yellen, PPI

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Tuesday: Yellen, PPI

Tuesday:• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. • At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, Testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report...
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Schedule for Week of Feb 12, 2017

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Schedule for Week of Feb 12, 2017

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). For manufacturing, January industrial production, and the February New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. —–...
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Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak

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Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of January 2017, there are still fewer people in the 25 to 54 age group than in 2007. However the prime working age (25 to 54) will probably hit a new peak this year. Changes in demographics are...
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