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Schedule for Week of August 11, 2019

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Schedule for Week of August 11, 2019

The key reports this week are July CPI, Housing starts and Retail sales. For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report and the August New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, Aug 12th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Aug 13th —–6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for...
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“No, Mortgage Rates Are No Longer “Sharply Lower” This Week!”

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“No, Mortgage Rates Are No Longer “Sharply Lower” This Week!”

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: No, Mortgage Rates Are No Longer “Sharply Lower” This Week! Mortgage rates were sharply higher today, with the average 30yr fixed rate quote rising by almost an eighth of a percentage point in some cases. A move of that magnitude in one day is the sort of...
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Summer Teen Employment

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Summer Teen Employment

Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time. The graph below shows the participation rate and employment-population ratio for those 16 to 19 years old. The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer. A few observations:1) Although teen employment has recovered...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Aug 4, 2019 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 55.5, up from 55.1. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value). Oil prices were down over the...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

From Merrill Lynch: The collapse in construction spending and soft inventories cut 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.8% qoq saar from the advance 2.1% print. … we revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to a trend-like 1.7% qoq saar from 1.2%. emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We...
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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June

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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.70% in June, from 0.70% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.97% in June 2018. These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in...
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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in June

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in June

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.63%, unchanged from 0.63% in May. Freddie’s rate is down from 0.82% in June 2018. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This equals the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since November 2007. These are mortgage loans...
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Schedule for Week of July 28, 2019

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Schedule for Week of July 28, 2019

The key report this week is the July employment report. Other key reports include Personal Income and Outlays for June,  Case-Shiller house prices for May, and the Trade deficit for June. For manufacturing, the July Dallas Fed, and the July ISM manufacturing surveys will be released. The FOMC meets this week, and the Fed...
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Kansas City Fed: “Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July”

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Kansas City Fed: “Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July”

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity was largely unchanged in...
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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.27 million in June A few key points: 1) The key for housing – and the overall economy – is new home sales, single family housing starts and overall residential investment. Overall, this is still a somewhat reasonable level for existing home sales.  No worries. 2) Inventory is...
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