reibulletin.com

RealtyTrac: Foreclosure activity declined in April

admin — Thu, 17 May 2012 18:07:12 +0000

This was released earlier this morning by RealtyTrac: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Shifts Eastward in April

RealtyTrac® … today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for April 2012, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 188,780 U.S. properties in April, the lowest monthly total since July 2007.

April foreclosure activity decreased 5 percent from the previous month and was down 14 percent from April 2011. …

“Rising foreclosure activity in many state and local markets in April was masked at the national level by sizable decreases in hard-hit foreclosure states like California, Arizona and Nevada,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Those three states, and several other non-judicial foreclosure states like them, more efficiently processed foreclosures last year, resulting in fewer catch-up foreclosures this year.”

“In addition, more distressed loans are being diverted into short sales rather than becoming completed foreclosures,” Moore continued. “Our preliminary first quarter sales data shows that pre-foreclosure sales — typically short sales — are on pace to outnumber sales of bank-owned properties during the quarter in California, Arizona and 10 other states.”

First, by “Eastward”, RealtyTrac really means a “shift to judicial foreclosure states”.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Here is a repeat of a graph from the MBA showing the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. See: Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure activity is picking up in the judicial states – and most of those are in the east.

Note: Graph posted with permission.

Last month, RealtyTrac was saying “The [foreclosure] dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen”. It is still early, but they seem to be backing off the “dam bursting” a little. As I noted earlier this year, Some thoughts on housing and foreclosures:

One of the “givens” for 2012 is that the number of foreclosures will increase following the mortgage servicer settlement agreement. But I’ve been wondering just how big that increase will be … the increase might be less than many people expect.

I reviewed some of the reasons that there might not be a huge flood. It is still early, but a combination of more short sales, more modifications, REO-to-rentals (including banks holding more REOs as rentals), underwater homeowners refinancing with HARP, and the slow process in judicial states will probably keep this from being a massive flood.

Calculated Risk

Key Measures of Inflation in April

admin — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:07:10 +0000

Earlier today the BLS reported:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in April on a seasonally adjusted basis … The gasoline index fell 2.6 percent in April and accounted for most of the decline in energy, though the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil decreased as well. … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March.

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
…
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was flat at 0.0% (0.4% annualized rate) in April. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for April here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.4%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.3%, and core CPI rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for March and increased 2.0% year-over-year.

These measures show inflation on a year-over-year basis is mostly still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Calculated Risk

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? (Part 1)

Russell Gray — Tue, 15 May 2012 07:43:06 +0000

When we interviewed Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago, he told us that NOW is a great time to get into real estate – and he specifically pointed to houses.

Fellow billionaire, Warren Buffett, appeared on CNBC a couple of months ago and essentially said the same thing. In fact, he said if there was an efficient way to do it, he’d like to buy 200,000 single family homes!

You may or may not agree with them at first blush, but when two billionaires (neither of whom are trying to sell you houses) both say the same thing, it’s probably worth taking a closer look, don’t you think?

Read the rest of Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? (Part 1) »

For more articles like this, please visit our Real Estate Investing Blog.

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 924 Institutions

admin — Sun, 13 May 2012 14:05:46 +0000

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 11, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Only one change to report this week to the Unofficial Problem Bank List.

A reader pointed out an action termination against First Missouri National Bank back in August 2011 that was not captured. First Missouri National Bank underwent a name change to First Missouri Bank and charter flip to state member in December 2011. While the name change and charter flip were properly identified, the action termination prior to the charter conversion was not as the OCC did not include the termination within a press release nor can it be found via the OCC’s enforcement action search tool. Perhaps the reader has direct access into the OCC’s database or a strong interest in this bank to discover such a needle in the haystack. We can only hope they find any other remaining needles.

With the removal, the Unofficial Problem Bank list stands at 924 institutions with assets of 1.1 billion. A year ago, the list held 983 institutions with assets of 5.4 billion. We thought there was an outside chance for the OCC to release its actions through mid-April, but they will keep us waiting until next week. Also, we will be on watch for the FDIC to release the Official Problem Bank List as of March 31, 2012.

Until then, do something kind this weekend for all of the mothers in your life.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending May 11th
• Schedule for Week of May 13th

Calculated Risk

Look Ahead: PPI, Consumer Sentiment

admin — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:10:56 +0000

There are two minor economic indicators scheduled for release tomorrow.

• The Producer Price Index for April at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus is for no change in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• And at 9:55 AM, the Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index is scheduled (preliminary for May). The consensus is for sentiment to decline to 76.2 from 76.4 in April.

Here are a couple of other sources for consumer confidence, with opposite readings. First from Gallup: U.S. Economic Confidence Steady at Relatively Improved Level

U.S. economic confidence for the week ending May 6 is at -18, up slightly from the previous week and slightly better than the -20 average for the month of April.

And from IBD: U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in May

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined by 0.8 points, or 1.6%, in May posting 48.5 vs. 49.3 in April.

• Of course the big stories tomorrow will be JPMorgan’s billion blunder, and the ongoing tragedy in Greece and Europe. It seems very likely that there will be another election in Greece on June 17th, from the Athens News:

Euro zone countries are prepared to keep financing Greece until the country forms a new government, whether one emerges from Sunday’s election or if new elections have to be held next month, euro zone officials said on Thursday. “I expect an announcement of new elections in Greece by Sunday at the latest,” one euro zone official said. “My understanding is that a second election in Greece could be by mid-June. We have the means to support Greece through the end of June,” a second euro zone official said.

“We will provide enough funds for Greece to stay afloat for as long as the political decision is clarified,” the first euro zone official said.

“There is no use letting them default in the middle of things. That is what yesterday was all about – giving them enough money to stay afloat and not induce new chaos if people are not paid, but not giving them more than the bare minimum to discourage parties which say that ‘we can do whatever we want and they will still save us because it is in the EU’s interest.’”

Calculated Risk

Look Ahead: Light Economic Day, Articles on Government Employment

admin — Wed, 09 May 2012 10:06:23 +0000

There are two minor economic indicators scheduled for release tomorrow.

• The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage aplications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for March will be released.

Last Friday I discussed the significant decline in government jobs over the last few years, and posted a graph comparing public sector job gains (and losses) for President George W. Bush’s first term (following the stock market bust), and for President Obama’s current term (following the housing bust and financial crisis). The Bush term was added for comparison purposes only, and there are many differences between the two periods.

A big difference between Mr. Bush’s first term and Mr. Obama’s presidency has been public sector employment. The public sector grew during Mr. Bush’s term (up 900,000 jobs), but the public sector has declined since Obama took office (down 607,000 jobs). These job losses are at the state and local level, although the Federal government has been losing jobs over the last year. These job losses have been a significant drag on overall employment.

It appears the state and local public sector job losses are slowing, and it is likely that the decline in state and local public payrolls will end mid-year 2012. However the Federal government jobs losses will probably continue.

Here are two interesting posts on government workers:

• From the FT Alphaville: Fact of the day, US government workers edition

Government workers account for 9.1% of the working age population, equaling the lowest share on record. When this government employment share of the population was last witnessed in 1984, it was alleviated in part by a massive surge in government spending, with yearly real federal spending topping out at 10.6% in 1985. Yet such an offset seems unlikely in the quarters ahead, as major government spending increases in the current political climate are verboten.

That’s via Moody’s Analytics, and this is mostly a state and local government story, with federal government jobs staying roughly flat since the end of the recession when excluding temporary census hiring.

The only silver lining is that the decline might have bottomed …

• From the WSJ: Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1%

The unemployment rate would be far lower if it hadn’t been for those [government] cuts: If there were as many people working in government as there were in December 2008, the unemployment rate in April would have been 7.1%, not 8.1%.

For the monthly economic question contest, here are two question for later this week (Thursday and Friday):

Calculated Risk

Is It Time to Buy an Investment Property?

Bill Bonner — Mon, 07 May 2012 15:00:39 +0000

Is it time to buy a property? Maybe…

The Wall Street Journal reports that the housing market may have bottomed out. Of course, that’s what the press has been saying for the last 4 years. But now, the WSJ says buyers are bidding against one another:

A new development is catching home buyers off guard as the spring sales season gets under way: Bidding wars are back.

From California to Florida, many buyers are increasingly competing for the same house. Unlike the bidding wars that typified the go-go years and largely reflected surging sales, today’s are a result of supply shortages.

Read the rest of Is It Time to Buy an Investment Property? »

For more articles like this, please visit our Real Estate Investing Blog.

© 2012 by Marco Santarelli and Norada Real Estate Investments.
Your Premier Source for Turnkey Investment Property.

Bank Failure #23 in 2012: Security Bank, National Association, North Lauderdale, Florida

admin — Sat, 05 May 2012 06:06:10 +0000

Security Bank
Once graceful on a tight rope
Fell as gator chum

by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Banesco USA, Coral Gables, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Security Bank, National Association, North Lauderdale, Florida

As of March 31, 2012, Security Bank, National Association had approximately 1.0 million in total assets and .1 million in total deposits. … The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be .8 million. … Security Bank, National Association is the 23rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Florida.

Earlier on the employment report:
• April Employment Report: 115,000 Jobs, 8.1% Unemployment Rate
• April Employment Summary and Discussion
• More Graphs: Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• All Current Employment Graphs

Calculated Risk

In Much of California, Renting More Expensive than Buying

Mike Simonsen — Thu, 03 May 2012 18:11:26 +0000

Home prices in California are stupid high, right? It must be a better deal to rent. At least in the big metros. Well not according to our friends at Movoto.com.

Movoto looked at home prices in 11 counties across the state of California and compared them to the average rents in those counties. In eight of the 11 counties, renters end up out of pocket more than buyers, sometimes a lot more. From their press release:

Alameda County renters pay an additional $332/month;
Contra Costa County renters pay an additional $905;
El Dorado County renters pay an additional $330;
Los Angeles County renters pay an additional $174;
Riverside County renters pay an additional $867;
San Bernardino County renters pay an additional $507;
San Mateo County renters pay an additional $479; and
Yuba County renters pay an additional $248.

To complete the cost analysis, Movoto.com compared the average monthly mortgage cost and associated taxes of a 3-bedroom, single-family residence to the average monthly cost of renting an apartment. Information on the average monthly rent cost was provided by real estate data and analytic firm Altos Research, which offers the largest housing and apartment rental database in the United States.

The analysis assume a 35 percent marginal income tax rate, a 1.5 percent property tax rate, a 20% down payment and a mortgage interest rate of 4%. The analysis only compared the current cost of renting to the current monthly cost of buying and does not include the benefit of avoiding future rent increases or gaining property appreciation over the ownership period.

It’s a fascinating dynamic and something that we’ve been talking about for a while. Both home prices and rents are climbing in most of this state. It’s always a tough comparison, difficult to control for quality of dwelling and maintenance costs, etc. And of course the big assumptions are that A) you can qualify for a loan and B) that you have 20% for that downpayment. The observation, and this is true around the country, is that if you’re well financed, mortgage money is so ridiculously cheap. And that makes these “affordability” analyses look very favorably at the costs of buying a home.

Full press release here.

Altos Research Rental Intel (sm) market data info here.

Phoenix Housing Is On Fire

Adam Artunian — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:00:52 +0000

The Phoenix housing market is on fire, driven by strong economic growth, once in a generation affordability levels, and a surge in investment activity that far surpasses the levels during the housing boom. Once considered to be ground zero of the housing market collapse, Phoenix has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround in recent months and has considerably outpaced other distressed markets such as Las Vegas, Riverside, San Bernardino and Sacramento. Phoenix was one of the hardest hit housing markets during the bust, with home values declining 57% from 2006 through mid-2011.

But since the middle of 2011, the housing conditions in Phoenix have markedly improved and prices have begun to rise. Certainly record affordability has helped nudge hesitant homebuyers off of the sidelines in recent months, but affordability is now excellent in nearly every market in the country.

So why has Phoenix experienced such a sharp rebound while many other markets continue to struggle? Improvement in the following market drivers are playing a key role in Phoenix’s recent surge:

Read the rest of Phoenix Housing Is On Fire »

For more articles like this, please visit our Real Estate Investing Blog.

reibulletin.com

RealtyTrac: Foreclosure activity declined in April

Key Measures of Inflation in April

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? (Part 1)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 924 Institutions

Look Ahead: PPI, Consumer Sentiment

Look Ahead: Light Economic Day, Articles on Government Employment

Is It Time to Buy an Investment Property?

Bank Failure #23 in 2012: Security Bank, National Association, North Lauderdale, Florida

In Much of California, Renting More Expensive than Buying

Related Posts:

Phoenix Housing Is On Fire