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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Q3 Mall Vacancies, ISM non-Manufacturing

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Earlier I posted a preview for the September employment report. I noted that over the last four years, September payrolls have been revised up by an average of 55,000 – so it appears the BLS underestimates employment in September.

But that is nothing compared to the ’90s.

As an example, in September 1995 the BLS initially reported an increase of 121,000 payroll jobs. Eventually that was revised up to 241,000.

In September 1996, the BLS initially reported a 40,000 decrease in payrolls jobs. This was eventually revised up to a 225,000 increase!

And in September 1997, the BLS initially reported an increase of 215,000 payroll jobs. This was revised up to 512,000 jobs! Wow.

I think the BLS methods have improved (the revisions tend to be smaller now), but there will still be significant revisions.

Friday:
• Early, Reis Q3 2014 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 215,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September, up from the 142,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.1% in September.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at .7 billion in August from .5 billion in July.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 58.8, down from 59.6 in August. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.
Calculated Risk

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