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Goldman FOMC Preview


• At 10:00 AM ET, 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 550 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 546 thousand in May.

A few excerpts from an FOMC preview by Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl:

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is shaping up to be the calm before the storm. Short-term interest rate markets imply a zero probability that the committee will raise policy rates next week, but show a high likelihood of at least one hike before the end of the year. Thus, although changes to the stance of policy look very unlikely, the upcoming statement will be closely watched for any clues on the precise timing of liftoff (we continue to see December as most likely). We will be focused on three main items:

• First, the description of economic conditions will likely acknowledge the decline in the unemployment rate. We expect the statement to drop its prior reference to stable oil prices, but to leave other comments about inflation unchanged.

• Second, we do not expect additional language intended to prepare for rate hikes in the statement. In 2004 the FOMC used the “measured” phrase for this purpose, but Fed Chair Yellen downplayed the need for new guidance at the June press conference. A change along these lines is a risk for next week, however.

• Third, we do not expect dissents, but see them as a risk from President Evans (dovish) and President Lacker (hawkish).

Calculated Risk

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