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Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

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A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 190k in July … Our forecast reflects generally favorable labor market fundamentals and a potential boost from evolving seasonality, as July job growth has been strong in recent years in both the establishment and household surveys.

We believe job growth will be sufficient to bring the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%, and we expect the combination of diminished labor market slack and favorable calendar effects to produce a 0.3% monthly rise in average hourly earnings (or +2.4% year-over-year).


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