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Lawler: More Builder Results and Summary Table

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From housing economist Tom Lawler:

The Ryland Group reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30, 2014 totaled 2,228, up 1.7% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Sales per community last quarter were down 13.8% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,700, up 2.5% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of 3,000, up 15.0% from last year. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 3,860, up 5.5% from last June, at an average order price of 6,000, up 11.3% from a year ago. Ryland owned or controlled 40,966 lots at the end of June, up 11.5% from last June and up 58.3% from two years ago. The company said that concessions averaged 6.7% of sales prices last quarter, down from 7.3% a year earlier but up from 6.4% in the previous quarter.

Beazer Homes reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30, 2014 totaled 1,290, down 6.6% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Sales per community were off 3.9% from a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 1,241 last quarter, up 0.6% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of 4,600, up 12.1% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 2,212, down 6.2% from last June. Beazer owned or controlled 29,783 lots at the end of June, up 10.4% from last June and up 18.7% from two years ago.

Standard Pacific Corporation reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30, 2014 totaled 1,524, up 0.5% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Sales per community were down 9.9% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,236, up 12.9% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of 9,000, up 20.7% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 2,304, up 1.4% from the comparable quarter of 2013. The company owned or controlled 35,948 lots at the end of June, up 30.7% from last June and up 68.2% from two years ago.

Below are some summary stats for nine large publicly-traded home builders. Net home orders per community for these combined home builders were unchanged from a year ago.

Last week Census estimated that new SF home sales last quarter were down about 6% from the comparable quarter of 2013 (not seasonally adjusted). Comparing large builder orders to Census data can be tricky, as (1) Census treats sales cancellations differently from reported builder numbers; (2) there appears to be a difference in the timing of the recognition of a “sale;” and (3) market shares can change. Normally the above large builder results would lead me to conclude that there is a good chance Census will revise its home sales estimates for last quarter upward in the next report. Given D.R. Horton’s move last quarter to increase its sales pace by materially increasing sales incentives in many markets, however, it seems likely that the overall market share of these builders increased last quarter. (In addition, Horton’s orders last quarter were boosted by about 290 from an acquisition.). As a result, it’s not clear if the builder results below point to a likely upward revision in Census sales numbers.


  Net Orders Settlements Average Closing Price
Qtr. Ended: 06/14 06/13 % Chg 06/14 06/13 % Chg 06/14 06/13 % Chg
D.R. Horton 8,551 6,822 25.3% 7,676 6,464 18.8% 2,316 252,290 7.9%
PulteGroup 4,778 4,885 -2.2% 3,798 4,152 -8.5% 8,000 294,000 11.6%
NVR 3,415 3,278 4.2% 2,943 2,878 2.3% 8,200 344,700 6.8%
The Ryland Group 2,228 2,191 1.7% 1,700 1,659 2.5% 3,000 287,000 16.0%
Beazer Homes 1,290 1,381 -6.6% 1,241 1,234 0.6% 4,600 253,800 12.1%
Standard Pacific 1,524 1,516 0.5% 1,236 1,095 12.9% 9,000 397,000 20.7%
Meritage Homes 1,647 1,637 0.6% 1,368 1,321 3.6% 8,000 330,000 11.5%
MDC Holdings 1,419 1,351 5.0% 1,158 1,183 -2.1% 2,000 338,400 9.9%
M/I Homes 1,016 1,078 -5.8% 894 788 13.5% 6,000 281,000 8.9%
Total 25,868 24,139 7.2% 22,014 20,774 6.0% 4,282 4,852 10.0%


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