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National Economic Outlook (September 2012)

National Economic Outlook (September 2012)

Let’s do the jobs math. In August, as in the preceding months, the number of jobs was 1.4 percent higher than last year. We’re probably stuck at this growth rate which translates to 1.8 million new jobs per year.

Unemployment is at 8 percent but it rarely gets below 5 percent, so the “excess” unemployment is about 4 million. At 1.8 million per year it would take just a couple of years to put those 4 million back to work, but new people enter the workforce every day so it will probably take twice as long.

What will accelerate the recovery is construction, which has been below replacement levels as we coped with an excess 4 million homes built during the boom. We’ve almost absorbed that excess and there will soon be unmet demand in many local markets; home prices have bottomed out in half of the 315 markets we cover. Other construction will also increase as state and local governments spend on delayed infrastructure projects.

Read the rest of National Economic Outlook (September 2012) »

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© 2012 by Marco Santarelli and Norada Real Estate Investments.
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