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Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Index, Employment Preliminary Benchmark Revision

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Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Index, Employment Preliminary Benchmark Revision

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back in Line With 2017 Lows Mortgage rates moved lower today on a combination of factors.  Chief among these were headlines over the weekend concerning more North Korean weapons testing–specifically, a detonation of its largest bomb ever on Sunday followed by reports from South Korea of another...
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Sunday Night Futures

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Sunday Night Futures

On Monday, all US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday. Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Sept 3, 2017 An update on Q3 GDP forecasts, from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.2...
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Oil Rigs “Horizontal rig counts continue to fall”

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Oil Rigs “Horizontal rig counts continue to fall”

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Sept 1, 2017: • Continued decline in horizontal rig counts • Total US oil rigs were flat at 759 • Horizontal oil rigs were down 3 at 644…• Drilling Info continues to show a widening disparity to Baker Hughes • Thesis is...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 237 thousand initial claims, up from 234 thousand the previous week. Note: The report tomorrow will be for the week ending Aug 26th. Unemployment claims will increase over the next few weeks due to Hurricane Harvey....
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate up Year-over-Year

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate up Year-over-Year

Note: Hotel occupancy rates increased noticeably following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. I expect the overall occupancy rate will also increase following Hurricane Harvey – and stay elevated for several months. This might even push 2017 into record territory. From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 19 August The U.S. hotel...
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Schedule for Week of Aug 27, 2017

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Schedule for Week of Aug 27, 2017

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the second estimate of Q2 GDP, the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales and the June Case-Shiller house prices. —– Monday, Aug 28th —–10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. —– Tuesday, Aug 29th...
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MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate in Q2 at Lowest Level Since 2000

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MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate in Q2 at Lowest Level Since 2000

From the MBA: Delinquencies and Foreclosures Continue to Decline in Q2 2017 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.24 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2017.  The delinquency rate was down 47 basis points from the...
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Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Modest Slowing in August

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Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Modest Slowing in August

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Modest Slowing The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), remained unchanged from July, continuing a modest deceleration of growth. The flat reading follows a 0.1...
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Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success

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Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success

Note: This is a repeat of a June post with updated statistics and graph. There are a number of observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy success.  My view is there are many measures of success - and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people...
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