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AAR: Rail Traffic increased in June

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AAR: Rail Traffic increased in June

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. rail traffic in June 2017 was a mix of the good and the not so good. The good included intermodal, which was up 4.6% in June and 2.7% (179,515 containers and trailers) for the year to date....
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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump

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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump

Here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, or any other marker. NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for...
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Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment

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Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment

Last week Reis reported the office vacancy rate was unchanged at 16.0% in Q2, from 16.0% in Q1. A key question is whether office investment will increase further (as a percent of GDP). The following graph shows the office vacancy rate and office investment as a percent of GDP. Note: Office investment also includes...
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Construction Spending unchanged in May

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Construction Spending unchanged in May

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was unchanged in May: Construction spending during May 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of ,230.1 billion, nearly the same as the revised April estimate of ,230.4 billion. The May figure is 4.5 percent above the May 2016 estimate of ,177.0...
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Schedule for Week of July 2, 2017

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Schedule for Week of July 2, 2017

The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, June auto sales, and the May Trade Deficit. —– Monday, July 3rd —–10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.1, up from 54.9...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than 2 Weeks Mortgage rates moved moderately higher again today, as investors continued digesting the possibility of a “taper tantrum” in Europe. …The average lender is once again quoting 4.0% on top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios.  Before today (and especially before yesterday), 3.875% was...
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Schedule for Week of June 25, 2017

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Schedule for Week of June 25, 2017

The key economic reports this week are Personal Income and Outlays for May, Case-Shiller house prices, and the third estimate of Q1 GDP. —– Monday, June 26th —–8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in durable goods orders. 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index...
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Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

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Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Fall Slightly to Remain Near 8-Month Lows Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday.  This was neither here nor there for the mortgage world as most lenders didn’t adjust rates much higher yesterday (despite bond weakness).  Thus,...
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Oil Rigs: “Smallest four week add since last year”

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Oil Rigs: “Smallest four week add since last year”

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on June 16, 2017: • The party’s over.  Oil prices are beginning to weigh on drilling activity. • Total US oil rigs were up 6 to 747 • However, only 1 new horizontal oil rig was added, and only 3 in the last...
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