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Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 8%

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Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

• At 2:00 PM, The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for December.

On Phoenix:

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

For the thirteen consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from the prior year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in December were up 4.3% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 8.0% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

With falling inventory, prices increased a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 4.6% through October according the Case-Shiller (about double the pace for 2014).


December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Dec-08 5,524 1,665 30.1% 53,7921
Dec-09 7,661 38.7% 3,008 39.3% 39,709 -26.2%1
Dec-10 8,401 9.7% 3,939 46.9% 42,463 6.9%
Dec-11 7,843 -6.6% 3,635 46.3% 24,712 -41.8%
Dec-12 7,071 -9.8% 3,211 45.4% 21,095 -14.6%
Dec-13 5,930 -16.1% 2,053 34.6% 25,511 20.9%
Dec-14 6,475 9.2% 1,893 29.2% 25,052 -1.8%
Dec-15 6,756 4.3% 1,617 23.9% 23,053 -8.0%
1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings


Calculated Risk

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