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Schedule for Week of Apr 30, 2017

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The key report this week is the April employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the April ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, April auto sales, and the March Trade Deficit.

—– Monday, May 1st —–

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to be unchanged.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 56.5, down from 57.2 in March.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 57.2% in March. The employment index was at 58.9%, and the new orders index was at 64.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

—– Tuesday, May 2nd —–

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.2 million SAAR in April, from 16.6 million in  March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

—– Wednesday, May 3rd —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 263,000 added in March.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for index to increase to 55.8 from 55.2 in March.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

—– Thursday, May 4th —–

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 246 thousand initial claims, down from 257 thousand the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at .5 billion in March from .6 billion in February.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for March. The consensus is a 0.4% increase in orders.

—– Friday, May 5th —–

8:30 AM: Employment Report for April. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April, up from the 98,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.6%.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In March, the year-over-year change was 2.13 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for a .6 billion increase in credit.
Calculated Risk

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