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Schedule for Week of November 21st

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This is a holiday week (Happy Thanksgiving!), but there will be plenty of data released early in the week. The key releases are existing home sales (on Tuesday) and New home sales (on Wednesday).

—– Monday, Nov 22nd —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October). This is a composite index of other data.

9:00 AM: CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Data for August 2010. This report provides an estimate of the number of properties not currently listed for sale that are either seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure, or real estate owned (REO) by lenders.

Morning: Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) for September.

1:30 PM: Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota speaks on “Monetary Policy, Labor Markets, and Uncertainty” before the Sioux Falls Rotary Club.

—– Tuesday, Nov 23rd —–

8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q3 from the BEA, and the consensus is for real GDP growth to be revised to an increase of 2.4% annualized from the advance estimate of 2.0%.

8:30 AM: Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2010 (preliminary estimate)

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.5 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in October, about the same as the 4.53 million SAAR in September. Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting a slight decline from last month (SAAR). In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices). Months-of-supply was probably still in double digits in October.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. The consensus is for a reading of 5 (slight expansion), the same as last month.

10:00 AM: the BLS will release the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for October.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of November 2-3, 2010. There might be some interesting points on QE2.

—– Wednesday, Nov 24th —–

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last few months – suggesting home sales will be very weak through the end of the year.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for October. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released a day early because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Initial claims increased slightly to 439,000 last week, and initial claims are expected to decline to 435,000 this week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in durable goods orders after increasing 3.3% in September.

9:55 AM: Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (final for November).

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase in sales to 314K (SAAR) in October from 307K in September. New home sales collapsed in May and have averaged only 294K (SAAR) over the last five months. Prior to the last five months, the previous record low was 338K in Sept 1981.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for November. The index was at 10 in October.

—– Thursday, Nov 25th —–

Thanksgiving Holiday. Markets Closed.

—– Friday, Nov 26th —–

Markets will close at 1:00 p.m. on the day after Thanksgiving.

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably take Friday afternoon off …

Calculated Risk

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