From yesterday on Calculated Risk -”House Prices & Lagged Data” - But sometimes the lag can be much longer. Tomorrow morning the January Case-Shiller house price index will be released. This is actually a three month average for house sales recorded in November, December and January. But remember that the purchase agreement for a...
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Yes, home prices are down… Back in October… …but getting less bad because inventory is down and still declining. The foreclosure pipeline is clogged in Florida, while New York and New Jersey still have their robo-signing hangovers: The constrained supply is also keeping days-on-market in check – sellers are still able to unload their...
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It’s up. Why? Open market supply (a.k.a “inventory”)is less volatile this Spring relative while prices have shown resilience to the supply that did hit the market: But… Expect the Spring-time rally to fade. An increasing number of active sellers are taking prices reductions (orange line below) and new sellers entering the market each week...
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The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices reported Tuesday are, as usual, so far behind the curve that not only did they miss the “double dip” that has come and gone, it will be at least July or August before it reports an apparent upturn in prices in March and April. S&P’s view of the...
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Down for February. According to the calendar, it will be May 1 on Sunday… Remember, the Case-Shiller is a 3-month rolling average, so the Spring 2011 market isn’t captured yet using this repeat-sales index. The active market tells a different story through this week: The Price of New Listings (black line) bottomed in February,...
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Couple of highlights from this month’s update: In March 2011, while the majority of markets tracked posted decreases in home prices, this is a trend that seems to be reaching its conclusion. Quietly, increases have been seen in several markets across the country, in markets along the East Coast, in particular. ?As is expected...
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Okay, not really roar, but I am a panelist on the “Distressed Residential Overview” session on Thursday afternoon. Click for the full conference agenda . Here are last year’s presentation slides in which I showed how our active marketing housing indicators lead home price indices such as the S&P/Case-Shiller. Predicting US Housing Prices: Opal...
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With the S&P/Case-Shiller Index released today, everyone is aflutter with talk of a double-dip in house prices. Remain calm. These are January numbers. It’s almost April. More recent figures exhibit more positivity for the 2011 housing market. Here’s how – Since 2008, as the active housing inventory (the number homes available for sale) rose...
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Well, sort of… The good news is that today’s S&P/Case-Shiller reports home prices through December 2010. But… looking at the active market as of Friday (February 18) weekly home prices are starting a seasonal bounce: We called the spring-time bounce in our Q4 webcast back in December (recording & slides). The...
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Looking ahead to 2011, seems the big question in the housing market is whether it will get more bad or less worse. We’ve been pretty darn good with our crystal ball (aka: real-time active market leading indicators) over the past few years: Spring ’08: Asking Price changes (blue line) peaked barely above 0% in...
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