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Comment on Employment Report: Hurricane Bounce Back, Record Job Streak Still Alive!

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Comment on Employment Report: Hurricane Bounce Back, Record Job Streak Still Alive!

The headline jobs number was strong at 261 thousand  – due to a bounce back from the hurricanes – but below expectations. However a key reason for the “disappointing” headline number was that the previous two months were revised up by a combined 90 thousand jobs. The upward revision to the September jobs report...
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Off-Topic: A Comment on Litmus Test Moments

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Off-Topic: A Comment on Litmus Test Moments

Some off-topic rambling … A few times in life there are public moments (and private ones too) that really make a difference. As example, for economic forecasters, calling the housing bubble and bust is now a litmus test. Some people, like Larry Kudlow, failed the test.  See Kudlow’s June 2005 article: Why the Housing...
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A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January

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A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In January 2015, the index was up 4.5% YoY.  However the YoY change has only declined slightly over the last five months. Looking forward, I expect the YoY increases for the indexes to move...
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Employment: A comment on the Birth/Death Model

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Employment: A comment on the Birth/Death Model

On Friday, I wrote in frustration: nyone who adds (or subtracts) the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) birth/death model numbers from the headline SA payroll employment is clueless. Someone sent me this “analysis” today: “… you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with…. +7K jobs”....
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