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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.27 million in June A few key points: 1) The key for housing – and the overall economy – is new home sales, single family housing starts and overall residential investment. Overall, this is still a somewhat reasonable level for existing home sales.  No worries. 2) Inventory is...
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Comments on February Existing Home Sales

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Comments on February Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.51 million in February A few key points: 1) Seasonally February is one of the weakest months of the year for existing home sales (See Not Seasonally Adjusted NSA graph below).  Since existing home sales are counted at closing, these are properties that usually went under contract during...
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A few Comments on November New Home Sales

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A few Comments on November New Home Sales

First, this report was for November (it was almost ready to release when the government shutdown began in December). The December report will probably be released soon, but no release date has been announced yet. Based on other data, I’d expect sales to be weak in December, but talking to builders, I expect a...
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Comments on December Employment Report

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Comments on December Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 312 thousand for December was well above consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 58 thousand, combined. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. This was a strong report. Earlier: December Employment Report: 312,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate In December, the year-over-year...
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A few Comments on August New Home Sales

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A few Comments on August New Home Sales

New home sales for August were reported at 629,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was close to the consensus forecast, however the three previous months were revised down significantly. Sales in August were up 12.7% year-over-year compared to August 2017.   This was strong YoY growth, however this was an...
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Housing comments from Soylent Green

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Housing comments from Soylent Green

Long term readers will remember mortgage broker “Soylent Green is People”. He sent me these comments on housing that I’ll pass along: “A bit of a panic is breaking out amongst my Realtor friends. Sales are down. There are more cancellations right before closings than usual. Builders are getting a few drop outs as...
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A Few Comments on May Existing Home Sales

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A Few Comments on May Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: “Existing-Home Sales Backpedal, Decrease 0.4 Percent in May” A few key points: 1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler’s forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April.   The consensus was for sales of 5.56 million SAAR, Lawler estimated the...
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Comments on February Housing Starts

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Comments on February Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.236 Million Annual Rate in February The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down 7.0% in February compared to January, and starts were down 4.0% year-over-year compared to February 2017.   The decline in starts was due to the volatile multi-family sector.  Single family starts were...
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A few Comments on December New Home Sales

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A few Comments on December New Home Sales

New home sales for December were reported at 625,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well below the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were revised down significantly. On an annual basis, sales were up 8.3% in 2017 compared to 2016.  This was a solid year-over-year gain. Here is...
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A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

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A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: “Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in March” A few key points: 1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler’s forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus.  See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March “I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors...
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