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A few Comments on December New Home Sales

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A few Comments on December New Home Sales

New home sales for December were reported at 625,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well below the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were revised down significantly. On an annual basis, sales were up 8.3% in 2017 compared to 2016.  This was a solid year-over-year gain. Here is...
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A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

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A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: “Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in March” A few key points: 1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler’s forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus.  See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March “I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors...
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Comments: Another Solid Employment Report

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Comments: Another Solid Employment Report

The headline jobs number was above expectations, however there were combined downward revisions to the previous two months. Overall this was a solid report. Earlier: January Employment Report: 227,000 Jobs, 4.8% Unemployment Rate In January, the year-over-year change was 2.34 million jobs. Average Hourly Earnings Click on graph for larger image. This graph is...
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A Few Comments on November Existing Home Sales

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A Few Comments on November Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in November to 5.61 million SAAR Several key points: 1) The strong year-over-year increase was related to the implementation of the new TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) in November 2015. Note: TILA: Truth in Lending Act, and RESPA: the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974. The impact from TRID...
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A Few Comments on October Existing Home Sales

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A Few Comments on October Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in October to 5.60 million SAAR First, these October existing home sales closed escrow before the recent increase in mortgage rates (rates started increasing after the election). Also, the recent increase in mortgage rates will probably have little impact on November closed sales, since most of those sales were...
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A few Comments on September New Home Sales

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A few Comments on September New Home Sales

New home sales for September were reported below the consensus forecast at 593,000  on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). And the three previous months were all revised down significantly. However, sales were up 29.8% year-over-year in September, and this is the best month for September (NSA) since 2007. And sales are up...
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A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales

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A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in April to 5.45 million SAAR First, please note that once again housing economist Tom Lawler nailed the NAR report. I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million in April Second, I’d...
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Comments on December New Home Sales

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Comments on December New Home Sales

The new home sales report for December was above expectations, and sales for September, October and November were revised up. Sales were up 9.9% year-over-year in December (SA). Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 544,000 Annual Rate in December. The Census Bureau reported that new home sales in 2015 were 501,000. That is up...
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Comments on August New Home Sales

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Comments on August New Home Sales

The new home sales report for August was above expectations and sales were at the highest level since early 2008.  New home sales are important for jobs and the economy, and the solid increase in sales this year is a positive sign. Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 552,000 Annual Rate in August. The...
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Comments on May Housing Starts

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Comments on May Housing Starts

Total housing starts in May were below expectations, however, overall, including the upward revisions to March and April, starts were solid. There was also a significant increase for permits in May (mostly for the volatile multi-family sector). However I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on permits.   The last time there was a spike...
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