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Posts Tagged ‘ forecasts ’

Q4 GDP Forecasts

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Q4 GDP Forecasts

From Goldman Sachs: Q4 2.6% (qoq ar). .emphasis added From Merrill Lynch: e revise down 4Q GDP to 2.8% from 3.0% . And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts

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Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 3.8% qoq saar for 2Q. .emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on July 11, up from 3.8 percent on July 6. [July...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts

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Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: The data bumped up 2Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 3.8% qoq saar. .emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from...
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2018 Housing Forecasts

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2018 Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is an update (I’ll gather several more). First a review of the previous five years … Here is a summary of forecasts for 2017. It is early (just nine months), but in 2017, new home sales will probably...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts

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Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on August 9, down from 3.7 percent on August 4. From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q3. The...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts

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Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: We revised down our official 2Q GDP forecast to 2.5%, essentially marking-to market. 1Q is tracking a tenth higher to 1.1%. From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on June 9, down...
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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded Again

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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded Again

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.5 percent on April 14, down from 0.6 percent on April 7. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent after this morning’s...
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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded

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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded

The advance GDP report for Q1 GDP will be released in April.  Based on the February Personal Income and Outlays report released this morning, it appears PCE growth is tracking less than 0.5% in Q1. Here are a few updated forecasts for Q1: From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real...
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February NFP Forecasts

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February NFP Forecasts

A couple of NFP forecasts … From Nomura: Incoming data on the labor market suggest strong job gains in February. Data on sentiment, including the Empire State, Philly Fed and ISM manufacturing surveys, point to better hiring activity in February. Initial and continuing claims data continued to trend lower, implying that involuntary layoffs remain...
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2016: Updated Housing Forecasts

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2016: Updated Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like analysts are optimistic for 2016 (many more forecasts will be added). First a review of the previous three years … Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales will probably...
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