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Posts Tagged ‘ forecasts ’

Q3 GDP Forecasts

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Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on August 9, down from 3.7 percent on August 4. From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q3. The...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts

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Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: We revised down our official 2Q GDP forecast to 2.5%, essentially marking-to market. 1Q is tracking a tenth higher to 1.1%. From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on June 9, down...
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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded Again

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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded Again

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.5 percent on April 14, down from 0.6 percent on April 7. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent after this morning’s...
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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded

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Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded

The advance GDP report for Q1 GDP will be released in April.  Based on the February Personal Income and Outlays report released this morning, it appears PCE growth is tracking less than 0.5% in Q1. Here are a few updated forecasts for Q1: From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real...
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February NFP Forecasts

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February NFP Forecasts

A couple of NFP forecasts … From Nomura: Incoming data on the labor market suggest strong job gains in February. Data on sentiment, including the Empire State, Philly Fed and ISM manufacturing surveys, point to better hiring activity in February. Initial and continuing claims data continued to trend lower, implying that involuntary layoffs remain...
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2016: Updated Housing Forecasts

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2016: Updated Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like analysts are optimistic for 2016 (many more forecasts will be added). First a review of the previous three years … Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales will probably...
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Vehicle Sales Forecasts for August: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again

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Vehicle Sales Forecasts for August: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again

The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Tuesday, Sept 1. Sales in July were at 17.5 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in August will be over 17 million SAAR again. Note:  There were 26 selling days in August, down from 27 in August 2014 (Also...
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June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts

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June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts

The June employment report will be released on Thursday, July 2nd. Here are a couple of forecasts: From Nomura: e forecast a 230k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 235k. We forecast that manufacturing employment increased by 5k in June. We forecast...
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Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best April in “13 Years”

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Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best April in “13 Years”

The automakers will report April vehicle sales on Friday, May 1st. Sales in March were at 17.05 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales will be strong in April too.  April sales (SA) will probably be the best since 2005. Note:  There were 26 selling days in April,...
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Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in August

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Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in August

The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Wednesday, Sept 3rd. Sales in July were at 16.40 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in August will be above 16 million SAAR again. Note:  There were 27 selling days in August this year compared to 28 last year....
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