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Posts Tagged ‘ forecasts ’

Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

From Merrill Lynch: The collapse in construction spending and soft inventories cut 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.8% qoq saar from the advance 2.1% print. … we revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to a trend-like 1.7% qoq saar from 1.2%. emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

From Goldman Sachs: The May core PCE price index increased 0.19% month-over-month, close to expectations, but the year-over-year exceeded consensus by a tenth reflecting the price revisions in yesterday’s GDP report. Personal spending increased by 0.4% and was revised higher in April, and the personal saving rate remained flat at 6.1%. We left our...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s

The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th. From Merrill Lynch: Better than expected trade data were offset by soft manufacturing inventories data, leaving our 4Q tracking estimate unchanged at 2.3%. emphasis added From...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

From Goldman Sachs: We also lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.6% (qoq ar). emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s

From Merrill Lynch: Core retail sales popped 0.9% mom in Nov with net upward revisions. Industrial production climbed 0.6% driven by utilities. These data boosted 4Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.9% qoq saar. .emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts

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Q4 GDP Forecasts

From Goldman Sachs: Q4 2.6% (qoq ar). .emphasis added From Merrill Lynch: e revise down 4Q GDP to 2.8% from 3.0% . And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts

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Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 3.8% qoq saar for 2Q. .emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on July 11, up from 3.8 percent on July 6. [July...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts

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Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: The data bumped up 2Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 3.8% qoq saar. .emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from...
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2018 Housing Forecasts

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2018 Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is an update (I’ll gather several more). First a review of the previous five years … Here is a summary of forecasts for 2017. It is early (just nine months), but in 2017, new home sales will probably...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts

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Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on August 9, down from 3.7 percent on August 4. From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q3. The...
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