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Posts Tagged ‘ forecasts ’

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%

From Goldman Sachs: e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). (qoq ar). emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.8% for 2019:Q4. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for...
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First Look: 2020 Housing Forecasts

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First Look: 2020 Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is just a beginning (I’ll gather many more). The table below shows a few forecasts for 2020: From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: October 2019 From Freddie Mac: Freddie Mac October Forecast: Housing Market Remains Strong While Economic Slowdown Looms...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%

From Merrill Lynch: Weak inventories data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.5% qoq saar. emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 1.1% for 2019:Q4. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands...
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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

From Merrill Lynch: The collapse in construction spending and soft inventories cut 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.8% qoq saar from the advance 2.1% print. … we revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to a trend-like 1.7% qoq saar from 1.2%. emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We...
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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

From Goldman Sachs: The May core PCE price index increased 0.19% month-over-month, close to expectations, but the year-over-year exceeded consensus by a tenth reflecting the price revisions in yesterday’s GDP report. Personal spending increased by 0.4% and was revised higher in April, and the personal saving rate remained flat at 6.1%. We left our...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s

The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th. From Merrill Lynch: Better than expected trade data were offset by soft manufacturing inventories data, leaving our 4Q tracking estimate unchanged at 2.3%. emphasis added From...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

From Goldman Sachs: We also lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.6% (qoq ar). emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s

From Merrill Lynch: Core retail sales popped 0.9% mom in Nov with net upward revisions. Industrial production climbed 0.6% driven by utilities. These data boosted 4Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.9% qoq saar. .emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted...
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Q4 GDP Forecasts

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Q4 GDP Forecasts

From Goldman Sachs: Q4 2.6% (qoq ar). .emphasis added From Merrill Lynch: e revise down 4Q GDP to 2.8% from 3.0% . And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on...
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