Probably the four most important data releases for tracking the economy are 1) the monthly employment report, 2) the quarterly GDP report, 3) the monthly housing starts report, and 4) the new home sales report.  Only the employment report is being released on time. The government shutdown is delaying 3 out of 4 of...
Read more »

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in durable goods orders. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.5% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the second estimate of...
Read more »

My September Employment Preview Goldman: September Payrolls Preview Friday:• At 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, down from the 201,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.8%. • At 8:30 AM,...
Read more »

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales. • At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to...
Read more »

My July Employment Preview Goldman: July Payrolls Preview Friday:• At 8:30 AM, Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 213,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.9%. • Also at...
Read more »

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. • At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a...
Read more »

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1.72% increase in durable goods orders. • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 626 thousand SAAR, up from 593 thousand in January. • Also at...
Read more »

My December Employment Preview Goldman: December Payrolls Preview Friday:• At 8:30 AM, Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from the 228,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. • At...
Read more »

From Merrill Lynch: The strong retail sales data provided a 0.3pp boost to our 4Q GDP tracking estimate, bringing it up to 2.4%. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 18.0, down from 19.4. • At 9:15 AM, The...
Read more »

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Trying to Find a Ceiling Mortgage rates were decidedly higher this morning, with most lenders back above last week’s highs.  At the time, those were the highest rates in more than a month, although the range has been relatively narrow.  Underlying bond markets improved throughout the day,...
Read more »