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Posts Tagged ‘ Goldman ’

Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

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Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 190k in July … Our forecast reflects generally favorable labor market fundamentals and a potential boost from evolving seasonality, as July job growth has been strong in recent years in both the establishment and household...
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Goldman on Fed Balance Sheet Runoff

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Goldman on Fed Balance Sheet Runoff

A few brief excerpts from a note today by Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven: Balance Sheet Runoff: Sooner, Slower, Safer The debate within the FOMC about balance sheet normalization is now underway. Fed officials have two basic choices. They can rely exclusively on the funds rate for now and leave balance sheet decisions to...
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Goldman on the Trump Agenda

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Goldman on the Trump Agenda

On Thursday I wrote Some Random Concerns and Observations …. One of my observations was that after the election, many analysts thought the priorities of the new administration would be tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and deregulation. And the analysts thought that the negative economic policies on immigration and trade would be delayed until at...
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Goldman Sachs on Fed Funds rate: “Fairly easy path to a second hike in March”

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Goldman Sachs on Fed Funds rate: “Fairly easy path to a second hike in March”

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Daan Struyven A Road Map to Hikes in March and Beyond The FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.25-0.50% this week, shifting attention to the pace of subsequent hikes. While the median dot indicates a...
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Goldman: “Health Inflation Should Soon Begin to Rise”

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Goldman: “Health Inflation Should Soon Begin to Rise”

From Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs: Health-Care Costs Are About to Start Pushing Core Inflation Higher “Assuming that the policy-related influences roll off as we expect and that the underlying rate of health inflation rises by the same rate as our predicted path (i.e., it starts from the lower than predicted level but rises by the...
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Goldman Employment Forecast: 190K Jobs

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Goldman Employment Forecast: 190K Jobs

A brief excerpt from a research note by Goldman Sachs economist Chris Mischaikow August Payrolls Preview We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 190k in August, below the consensus forecast of 218k and down from July’s 215k gain. Labor market indicators were mixed last month. However, reported August payroll growth has tended to be relatively...
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Goldman FOMC Preview

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Goldman FOMC Preview

Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 550 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 546 thousand in May. A few excerpts from an FOMC preview by Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl: The July...
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Merrill and Goldman Expect GDP to Rebound in Q2

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Merrill and Goldman Expect GDP to Rebound in Q2

Some excerpts from two research reports … From Merrill Lynch: To everything, there is a season After a dismal start to the new year, we think that the worst is behind us. At its low, our tracking model for 1Q GDP pegged growth at -1.2%; now it is tracking -0.2%. The low for 2Q...
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Goldman: FOMC Preview

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Goldman: FOMC Preview

Some excerpts from a research note by economists Sven Jari Stehn and David Mericle at Goldman Sachs: The economic dataflow has been solid since the October FOMC meeting. … News on inflation, however, has been mixed. On the one hand, actual inflation measures have firmed a bit since October. But, on the other hand,...
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Goldman FOMC Preview: “Calming the Market”

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Goldman FOMC Preview: “Calming the Market”

A short excerpt from a research note by Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn at Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview: Calming the Market The economic data have improved a bit since the last FOMC meeting … But the improvement has been far from “substantial.” Growth remains in the sluggish 1-3% range … and jobs gains...
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