A major revision to GDP is coming this summer, from Robin Harding at the Financial Times: Data shift to lift US economy 3% The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film...
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This will be an interesting case to watch, from Reuters: Stockton, California bankruptcy eligibility trial starts As the biggest U.S. city to file for bankruptcy, the outcome for Stockton will be an important test case for the .7 trillion U.S. municipal debt market. The hearing is expected to last most of this week. Stockton,...
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One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I’ll be tracking inventory weekly for the next few months. If inventory does bottom, we probably will not know for sure until late in the year. In normal times, there is a clear seasonal...
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Here is how Reuters reported on existing home sales: Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 1 Percent U.S. home resales unexpectedly fell in December as fewer people put their properties on the market, although not by enough to derail the boost housing will likely provide to the economy this year. There is so much wrong...
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First, Stan Collender reviews his budget predictions for 2012 and offers five predictions for 2013: Beyond The Fiscal Cliff: My Budget Crystal Ball For 2013. One of his 2012 predictions is still open: The one prediction whose fate is still unknown is that I told readers not to be shocked if the only thing...
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Two more articles on the possible “fiscal cliff” deal: From the NY Times: President Delivers a New Offer on the Fiscal Crisis to Boehner The White House plan would permanently extend Bush-era tax cuts on incomes below 0,000, essentially meaning that only the top tax bracket, 35 percent, would rise to 39.6 percent. The...
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First on the recession in the Euro Zone from Jim Hamilton: Europe in recession The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3....
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From the NY Times Dealbook: Federal Prosecutors Sue Bank of America Over Mortgage Program In a civil complaint that seeks to collect billion from the bank, the Justice Department took aim at a home loan program known as the “hustle,” a venture that has become emblematic of the risk-fueled mortgage bubble. … Bank of...
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A few comments on existing home sales and inventory … This was a decent report, not because sales increased, but because of the level of inventory. Based on historical turnover rates, I think “normal” sales would be in the 4.5 to 5.0 million range. So existing home sales at 4.82 million are in the...
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The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 372 thousand. This was up from a revised 359 thousand SAAR in June (revised up from 350 thousand). Sales in May were revised down. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The...
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