From yesterday on Calculated Risk -”House Prices & Lagged Data” - But sometimes the lag can be much longer. Tomorrow morning the January Case-Shiller house price index will be released. This is actually a three month average for house sales recorded in November, December and January. But remember that the purchase agreement for a...
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Affordability measures price, but Capita per Inventory measures housing demand relative to supply, and isn’t that the point? RIM’s Playbook tablet, originally priced at $499 is now selling for $200. Very affordable compared to Apple’s iPad at $499-800+. But which tablet do you want for Christmas? And that’s the point – affordability doesn’t mean...
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Our August 2011 national housing report indicates signs of a market cool-down after a decent bounce this Spring. What are sellers doing now? Dropping their ask prices: What does this mean? Lower transaction prices in August and into the Fall. Recently reported gains in national home price indices like the S&P/Case-Shiller will move lower...
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Questions galore about “The Catfish Recovery” in last week’s webcast. The good people at Business Insider covered the event and posted our favorite image: Here are the main takeaways and responses to a few comments. If you’re expecting a smooth, consistent 3-5% annual growth rate in housing, you’ll be waiting a while. It just...
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For a full explanation on the current state of housing, listen to the webcast from earlier today “Double-Dip, Volatility, or Something Else?” Our VP of Analytics, Scott Sambucci, breaks it down with some great insights and visualization. IMPORTANT: The good stuff starts close to the six and a half minute mark, so fast-forward to...
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Down for February. According to the calendar, it will be May 1 on Sunday… Remember, the Case-Shiller is a 3-month rolling average, so the Spring 2011 market isn’t captured yet using this repeat-sales index. The active market tells a different story through this week: The Price of New Listings (black line) bottomed in February,...
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Interesting news on the Las Vegas housing market this week – sales reached a 5-year high according to Dataquick. Surprised? The positive signals have been building for the last 14 months: We noted the deceleration of Las Vegas’ price declines in January 2010. Towards the end of 2010, inventory started spiking causing downward price...
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Well, sort of… The good news is that today’s S&P/Case-Shiller reports home prices through December 2010. But… looking at the active market as of Friday (February 18) weekly home prices are starting a seasonal bounce: We called the spring-time bounce in our Q4 webcast back in December (recording & slides). The...
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Looking ahead to 2011, seems the big question in the housing market is whether it will get more bad or less worse. We’ve been pretty darn good with our crystal ball (aka: real-time active market leading indicators) over the past few years: Spring ’08: Asking Price changes (blue line) peaked barely above 0% in...
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In our Q4 webcast earlier this month – “When Does the Housing Recovery Start?” – I discussed how the “other housing supply problem” will drag prices lower in 2011 and into the next couple of years. Allow me to elaborate… Defining “The Other Supply Problem” It’s not just the raw number of homes entering...
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