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Posts Tagged ‘ inflation ’

“Mortgage Rates Back at 4-Year Highs Ahead of Inflation Data”

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“Mortgage Rates Back at 4-Year Highs Ahead of Inflation Data”

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back at 4-Year Highs Ahead of Inflation Data Mortgage rates moved higher today as bond markets braced for impact from several upcoming events. … omorrow’s Consumer Price Index–a key inflation report that can have an immediate impact on the bond market. If inflation is lower...
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Goldman: “The 2018 Inflation Rebound”

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Goldman: “The 2018 Inflation Rebound”

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven: The 2018 Inflation Rebound Using our top-down and bottom-up core PCE models, we project that both macroeconomic fundamentals as well as sector-specific factors are likely to push core inflation meaningfully higher this year.…We highlight three key drivers of the core PCE...
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Question #5 for 2017: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2017? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2017?

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Question #5 for 2017: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2017? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2017?

Late last year I posted some questions for 2017: Ten Economic Questions for 2017. I’ll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 5) Inflation: The inflation rate has increased a little recently, and some key measures are now close to the the Fed’s 2% target. Will core inflation rate...
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WTI Oil Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year, Little Drag on Inflation

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WTI Oil Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year, Little Drag on Inflation

Fed Governor Lael Brainard mentioned oil prices earlier today: The stabilization of the dollar and oil prices should lead inflation to move back toward our target in coming quarters. Click on graph for larger image This graph shows the year-over-year change in WTI based on data from the EIA.  Currently WTI is down about...
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Goldman: “Health Inflation Should Soon Begin to Rise”

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Goldman: “Health Inflation Should Soon Begin to Rise”

From Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs: Health-Care Costs Are About to Start Pushing Core Inflation Higher “Assuming that the policy-related influences roll off as we expect and that the underlying rate of health inflation rises by the same rate as our predicted path (i.e., it starts from the lower than predicted level but rises by the...
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Key Measures Show Low Inflation in May

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Key Measures Show Low Inflation in May

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean...
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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Inflation, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Inflation, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Goldman Sachs has a model that divides the business cycle into four stages: early-cycle, mid-cycle, late-cycle and recession.  According to Goldman economist Kris Dawsey, the economy appears to be transitioning from early to mid-cycle (but not late-cycle or worse): The likelihood of the economy showing late-cycle behavior or being in recession by the middle of...
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Key Measures show low inflation in June

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Key Measures show low inflation in June

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI...
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New Record Low for Mortgage Loans (Again!)

New Record Low for Mortgage Loans (Again!)

Long-term mortgage rates continued to move lower this week, with a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to a record low for the second consecutive week. The weekly rate report from Freddie Mac says 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.35 percent in the week ending May 2, down from 3.4 percent last week. The average rate on...
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The Real Crash is Coming!

The Real Crash is Coming!

Well, well, well… what an interesting year 2013 is shaping up to be! The U.S. is still, at least according to the U.S., the world’s largest economy. Super! Of course, U.S. gross national production includes the value of goods and services Americans produce regardless of their location – even overseas!  But where do those...
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