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Posts Tagged ‘ Merrill ’

Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle

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Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: Political Business Cycle (PBC) models were a hot topic in the 1980s. In the standard “opportunist” PBC model incumbent politicians have an incentive to stimulate the economy going into elections because the benefits-low unemployment-materialize quickly and the costs-high inflation-occur with a lag. … After playing...
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Merrill: “Are the stars aligning for wage growth?”

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Merrill: “Are the stars aligning for wage growth?”

A few excerpts from an article by Merrill Lynch economist Joseph Song: Are the stars aligning for wage growth? One of the puzzles and disappointments of 2017 was the lack of better wage growth. Average hourly earnings started the year growing around 2.5% yoy but ended the year where it started, despite the unemployment...
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Merrill on the March FOMC Meeting

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Merrill on the March FOMC Meeting

A few excerpts from a research note from Merrill Lynch: The markets listened to the chorus of Fed officials and are now pricing in near certainty of a hike. With the rate decision on 15 March likely to be a non-event, attention turns to the Summary of Economic Projections and the press conference. We...
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Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike

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Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike

Expectations of a March rate hike have increased significantly over the last few days. Some market based measures now show an 80%+ chance of a rate hike. A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research: The market has moved dramatically in the past two days to price in a hike at the March meeting. This...
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Merrill on Fed: “See you in September”

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Merrill on Fed: “See you in September”

A few excerpts from a research piece by Michael Hanson at Merrill Lynch: See you in September Earlier this year we had expected that the Fed would shift away from risk management toward a more straight-forward data-dependent policy stance, and that the US macro data would improve enough to support a rate hike this...
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Merrill on September CPI

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Merrill on September CPI

With the Fed focused on inflation, here is an excerpt from Merrill Lynch research piece today on September CPI to be released next week: We expect headline CPI to decline for the second straight month, growing -0.3% in September after a -0.1% reading for August. Weak energy prices should more than offset a slight...
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June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts

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June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts

The June employment report will be released on Thursday, July 2nd. Here are a couple of forecasts: From Nomura: e forecast a 230k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 235k. We forecast that manufacturing employment increased by 5k in June. We forecast...
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Merrill and Goldman Expect GDP to Rebound in Q2

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Merrill and Goldman Expect GDP to Rebound in Q2

Some excerpts from two research reports … From Merrill Lynch: To everything, there is a season After a dismal start to the new year, we think that the worst is behind us. At its low, our tracking model for 1Q GDP pegged growth at -1.2%; now it is tracking -0.2%. The low for 2Q...
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