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Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle

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Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: Political Business Cycle (PBC) models were a hot topic in the 1980s. In the standard “opportunist” PBC model incumbent politicians have an incentive to stimulate the economy going into elections because the benefits-low unemployment-materialize quickly and the costs-high inflation-occur with a lag. … After playing...
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