The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting. A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could...
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A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists Daan Struyven and Spencer Hill: We expect a 180k increase in nonfarm payroll employment in April, slightly below consensus expectations for a 190k gain. Most labor market indicators decelerated somewhat, and we don’t expect a meaningful weather rebound (relative to trend). … the...
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A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 190k in July … Our forecast reflects generally favorable labor market fundamentals and a potential boost from evolving seasonality, as July job growth has been strong in recent years in both the establishment and household...
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On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 195,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February (with a range of estimates between 168,000 to 215,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.7%. The BLS reported 227,000 jobs...
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On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October (with a range of estimates between 155,000 to 200,000), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.9%. The BLS reported 156,000 jobs...
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On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for September. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 168,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September (with a range of estimates between 155,000 to 200,000, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.9%. The BLS reported 151,000...
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On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs in July (with a range of estimates between 150,000 to 215,000, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.8%. The BLS reported 287,000 jobs...
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Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 550 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 546 thousand in May. A few excerpts from an FOMC preview by Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl: The July...
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Some excerpts from a research note by economists Sven Jari Stehn and David Mericle at Goldman Sachs: The economic dataflow has been solid since the October FOMC meeting. … News on inflation, however, has been mixed. On the one hand, actual inflation measures have firmed a bit since October. But, on the other hand,...
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Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October (range of estimates between 200,000 and 282,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.9%. The BLS reported 248,000 jobs added in...
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