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Posts Tagged ‘ recession ’

“Is a Recession Coming?”

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“Is a Recession Coming?”

Derek Thompson at The Atlantic asked me about my views on an imminent recession in this excellent overview: Is a Recession Coming? Thompson concluded: If you’re going to worry, you should worry about three things: exports, China, and maybe the looming shadow of corporate debt. But nothing in the economy seems to predict an...
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The Endless Parade of Recession Calls

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The Endless Parade of Recession Calls

Note: I’ve made one recession call since starting this blog.  One of my predictions for 2007 was a recession would start as a result of the housing bust (made it by one month – the recession started in December 2007).  That prediction was out of the consensus for 2007 and, at the time, ECRI was saying a...
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Update: Predicting the Next Recession

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Update: Predicting the Next Recession

Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me – I’m not even on “recession watch”.    I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago).  This still seems correct – and I’ve added a few updates in italics....
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Employment Recovery: Great Recession, Great Depression, and other Financial Crises

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Employment Recovery: Great Recession, Great Depression, and other Financial Crises

As a follow-up to my earlier posts comparing employment recoveries from recent recessions, here is a graph comparing the recent recovery to other financial crises. Even though it took 6+ years to exceed the previous employment peak, this is actually better than most recoveries from a financial crisis. (Note: this recovery was during a...
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Percent Job Losses: Great Recession and Great Depression

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Percent Job Losses: Great Recession and Great Depression

The causes of the Great Recession were similar to the Great Depression – as opposed to most post war recessions that were caused by Fed tightening to slow inflation – and I’m frequently asked if we could compare the percent job losses during the two periods. Unfortunately there is very little data for the...
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Eurozone Recession: Record Unemployment, Manufacturing Shrinks

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Eurozone Recession: Record Unemployment, Manufacturing Shrinks

From Eurostat: Euro area unemployment rate at 11.1% The euro area (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.1% in May 2012, compared with 11.0% in April. It was 10.0% in May 2011. The EU27 unemployment rate was 10.3% in May 2012, compared with 10.2% in April4. It was 9.5% in May 2011. Eurostat estimates that...
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Fed report details consumer behavior during recession

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Fed report details consumer behavior during recession

The rise and fall of home prices was a key driver in household savings and debt behavior during the Great Recession from late 2007 to June 2009, according to a new Federal Reserve Bank of New York report. Consumers responded to the economic stresses of the recession by curbing spending, reducing contributions to retirement...
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Chart of the Day: Price Reductions in Texas

Chart of the Day: Price Reductions in Texas

An interesting article last week by ABCNews discusses how Texas avoided the housing crash due to stricter mortgage and lending laws.  But, while Texas mostly avoided the bubble and the burst, more recent analysis on the current market suggests that it might be prudent to hold back on using past tense with respect to...
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QE2 & the Housing Market: It’s not about the money

QE2 & the Housing Market: It’s not about the money

With the focus on international trade, currency wars, and retaliation from foreign Central Banks, there’s been relatively little chatter about the Fed’s Quantitative Easing (QE2) program and how it relates to the housing market.  Maybe the housing industry doesn’t know, doesn’t care, or plain just doesn’t expect much anymore. Even earnest commentary like this...
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