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Posts Tagged ‘ Recovery ’

Employment Recovery: Great Recession, Great Depression, and other Financial Crises

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Employment Recovery: Great Recession, Great Depression, and other Financial Crises

As a follow-up to my earlier posts comparing employment recoveries from recent recessions, here is a graph comparing the recent recovery to other financial crises. Even though it took 6+ years to exceed the previous employment peak, this is actually better than most recoveries from a financial crisis. (Note: this recovery was during a...
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Survey: “Shortage of Lots Slows Housing Recovery”

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Survey: “Shortage of Lots Slows Housing Recovery”

I talked with several builders at the end of last year, and in early January I reported: “I’ve heard some builders might be land constrained in 2013 (not enough finished lots in the pipeline).” Here are the results of a NAHB survey released today: Shortage of Lots Slows Housing Recovery A shortage of buildable...
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Recovery Measures

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Recovery Measures

By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments. Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and...
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Jobs growth points to potential recovery in housing

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Jobs growth points to potential recovery in housing

The housing market remains in the trenches, but underlying fundamentals show a recovery is possible as long as employment continues to tick up, Capital Economics said Friday. The economy added 200,000 jobs in December, which could push residential real estate forward if it is met with lower prices and looser underwriting standards, analysts at...
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Obama housing scorecard provides mixed picture of recovery

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Obama housing scorecard provides mixed picture of recovery

New housing data from the Obama administration underscores the housing market's fragility. The Obama administration's October Housing Scorecard Report reveals September new home sales rose to 26,100, down from 26,300 the same month a year earlier, but up from August's total of 24,700. Existing home sales grew to 409,200 in September, up 10% from...
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RealtyTrac’s Sharga sees no housing recovery before 2015

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RealtyTrac’s Sharga sees no housing recovery before 2015

It will take at least another year to work through the glut of REO inventory in the market and yet to come to market, according to Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac. Speaking at HousingWire's 2011 REO Expo in Fort Worth, Texas, Sharga said the housing market is years away from full recovery,...
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Housing recovery will begin with more jobs: PIMCO CEO

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Housing recovery will begin with more jobs: PIMCO CEO

PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian reiterated Friday what many housing economists have been saying for months: If you want a real recovery, you better look to jobs and training and bypass the notion that stimulus will jump-start the economy. When reviewing Friday's jobs report — where unemployment edged up to 9.1% — El-Erian said policy...
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Thoughts on Residential Investment Recovery

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Thoughts on Residential Investment Recovery

A few thoughts looking out a few years … • Residential investment (RI) is the best leading indicator for the economy. This isn’t perfect – nothing is – but RI is usually a strong leading indicator for the business cycle. The slump in RI helped me call the 2007 recession correctly, and the lack...
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