By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments. Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and...
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The housing market remains in the trenches, but underlying fundamentals show a recovery is possible as long as employment continues to tick up, Capital Economics said Friday. The economy added 200,000 jobs in December, which could push residential real estate forward if it is met with lower prices and looser underwriting standards, analysts at...
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New housing data from the Obama administration underscores the housing market's fragility. The Obama administration's October Housing Scorecard Report reveals September new home sales rose to 26,100, down from 26,300 the same month a year earlier, but up from August's total of 24,700. Existing home sales grew to 409,200 in September, up 10% from...
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It will take at least another year to work through the glut of REO inventory in the market and yet to come to market, according to Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac. Speaking at HousingWire's 2011 REO Expo in Fort Worth, Texas, Sharga said the housing market is years away from full recovery,...
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PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian reiterated Friday what many housing economists have been saying for months: If you want a real recovery, you better look to jobs and training and bypass the notion that stimulus will jump-start the economy. When reviewing Friday's jobs report — where unemployment edged up to 9.1% — El-Erian said policy...
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A few thoughts looking out a few years … • Residential investment (RI) is the best leading indicator for the economy. This isn’t perfect – nothing is – but RI is usually a strong leading indicator for the business cycle. The slump in RI helped me call the 2007 recession correctly, and the lack...
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