Monday economic releases: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for April will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to decline 0.3% in April, and to decline 0.1% ex-autos. Note: Some of the decline will be due to lower gasoline prices. • At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business...
Read more »

A major revision to GDP is coming this summer, from Robin Harding at the Financial Times: Data shift to lift US economy 3% The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film...
Read more »

This will be an interesting case to watch, from Reuters: Stockton, California bankruptcy eligibility trial starts As the biggest U.S. city to file for bankruptcy, the outcome for Stockton will be an important test case for the .7 trillion U.S. municipal debt market. The hearing is expected to last most of this week. Stockton,...
Read more »

Note: I’ve been following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of house sales in a distressed area over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales). The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009. Over the last two years there was a dramatic shift...
Read more »

There are several key economic releases on Friday. First, the Personal Income and Outlays report for January will be released. This will give some idea of how consumer spending is holding up following the payroll tax increase at the beginning of the year. Note that Personal Income will be off sharply in January since...
Read more »

From Edmunds.com: January Auto Sales Suggest the Good Times Will Keep Rolling in 2013, says Edmunds.com Edmunds.com … forecasts that 1,045,587 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million light vehicles. The projected sales will be … a 14.5...
Read more »

Here is how Reuters reported on existing home sales: Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 1 Percent U.S. home resales unexpectedly fell in December as fewer people put their properties on the market, although not by enough to derail the boost housing will likely provide to the economy this year. There is so much wrong...
Read more »

Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 15.31 million SAAR in December. That is up 13% from December 2011, and down 1% from the sales rate last month. This was above the consensus forecast of 15.1 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Note: Some of the increase in November...
Read more »

It looks like auto sales are finishing strong in 2012, however the growth rate for auto sales will probably slow in 2013. This is important because auto sales have been a key growth sector over the last few years, and that contribution will probably slow going forward.  The following table shows annual light vehicle sales,...
Read more »

First, Stan Collender reviews his budget predictions for 2012 and offers five predictions for 2013: Beyond The Fiscal Cliff: My Budget Crystal Ball For 2013. One of his 2012 predictions is still open: The one prediction whose fate is still unknown is that I told readers not to be shocked if the only thing...
Read more »