From Merrill Lynch on FOMC announcement: The FOMC communicated today a lack of concern about the recent slowdown in economic data, describing it as “transitory” while “the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid”. Not surprisingly then the statement was interpreted as hawkish relative to market expectations, as the Treasury curve bear...
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Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, down from the 255,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.8%. • Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for July...
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Tuesday:• Early: Reis Q1 2016 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates. • At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at .2 billion in February from .7 billion in January. • At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor...
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Employment previews: CR: Preview: Employment Report for January Goldman Payroll Preview: 170K Forecast Tim Duy: Jobs Day Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 188,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January, down from the 292,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December. The consensus is for...
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The Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was .9 billion in May, up .2 billion from .7 billion in April, revised. May exports were 8.6 billion, .5 billion less than April exports....
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The West Coast port slowdown is ongoing and will have an impact on the December trade report. From Reuters: Contract negotiators for U.S. West Coast ports hit snag Shipping companies and terminal operators for 29 U.S. West Coast ports appeared to have hit a snag on Wednesday in protracted labor negotiations with the dockworkers’...
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For fun, here are Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2015. Here are a few: 1. The Federal Reserve finally raises short-term interest rates, well before the middle of the year, encouraged by the improving employment data and strong Gross Domestic Product growth. The timing proves faulty, however, as the momentum of the economy has...
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A few employment previews: From me: Preview: Employment Report for November (reviewing the numbers for the month) From Tim Duy on the employment report and the Fed Ahead of the November Employment Report As I have said before, predicting the monthly nonfarm payroll change is a fool’s errand, yet an errand we all undertake. I...
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Earlier I posted a preview for the September employment report. I noted that over the last four years, September payrolls have been revised up by an average of 55,000 – so it appears the BLS underestimates employment in September. But that is nothing compared to the ’90s. As an example, in September 1995 the...
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From the WSJ: Small Firms Poised to Spend More on Plants, Equipment Among 798 small private firms with less than million in revenue, for instance, 51% said in August that they planned to increase their capital outlays in the next 12 months. That is … up from 42% a year ago, according to the...
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