From yesterday on Calculated Risk -”House Prices & Lagged Data” - But sometimes the lag can be much longer. Tomorrow morning the January Case-Shiller house price index will be released. This is actually a three month average for house sales recorded in November, December and January. But remember that the purchase agreement for a...
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Affordability measures price, but Capita per Inventory measures housing demand relative to supply, and isn’t that the point? RIM’s Playbook tablet, originally priced at $499 is now selling for $200. Very affordable compared to Apple’s iPad at $499-800+. But which tablet do you want for Christmas? And that’s the point – affordability doesn’t mean...
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Lots of yawns and snoozes as expected (see: CNBC Recap & Analysis: Tax Assessment, Morgtage Refis, Valuations, Conforming Loan Limits). The upper end price tiers have been adjusting their ask prices since the early Spring in anticipation of the FHA Loan Limit changes that took place on October 1: Nothing to see here. Move along…...
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Headline #1: California’s Median Home Price Hits 2011 High The Data: Prices leveled off in early 2011 after dropping from their 2010 peaks. Headline #2: Existing-Home Sales Jump Nearly 19% From Last Year The Data: Using “Listings Absorbed” as a proxy for transaction counts (measured as homes that exiting the market for any reason)...
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Our August 2011 national housing report indicates signs of a market cool-down after a decent bounce this Spring. What are sellers doing now? Dropping their ask prices: What does this mean? Lower transaction prices in August and into the Fall. Recently reported gains in national home price indices like the S&P/Case-Shiller will move lower...
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It’s up. Why? Open market supply (a.k.a “inventory”)is less volatile this Spring relative while prices have shown resilience to the supply that did hit the market: But… Expect the Spring-time rally to fade. An increasing number of active sellers are taking prices reductions (orange line below) and new sellers entering the market each week...
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Housing trends in the mid-sized US markets behave differently than housing trends in the major metropolitan areas. Markets like Pittsburgh never witnessed a huge bubble or burst during the housing run-up and crash. Because of the differences, Altos Research is now publishing a monthly 20-City Mid-Cities Report to capture and report those nuances. The...
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(Inspired by this local perspective on Phoenix foreclosure sales.) We’re often asked how distressed sales affect the resale market, and whether the housing market should be bifurcated into distressed and non-distressed sales. Mathematical beauty is in the eye of the modeler, but our active market analytics in Mesa shows that as distressed sales are...
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RE: “Greasing the skids? Putting numbers to the FHA’s anti-flipping waiver” and “The Semaphore of House Flippers” Always nice when the data validates our theories, which are based on data. As reported in DSNews today – “Survey Finds First-Time Buyers in Short Supply to Absorb Distress” “… a common business model for investors has...
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NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for March moved higher, counter-balancing the discouraging Case-Shiller numbers reported yesterday for February and reflecting our early-year observations (see: “Whew! Seasonal uptick in housing prices” from February 4 and “Is Spring Springing?” from March 4). Shadow inventory, defaults, demand, and economic growth remain huge challenges over the next few...
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