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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

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From Mark Thoma at Economist’sView: Why Didn’t the Fed Begin Tapering?

Here’s why I think they delayed: … 1. Fiscal policy. … 2. Inflation and unemployment. … 3. The Fed is gun shy. …4. Capital flight from developing markets.

From Tim Duy at Economist’sView: No Taper – Yet

Two significant factors that held the FOMC in check were fiscal policy and higher interest rates.

And from Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: In Surprise, Fed Decides Not to Curtail Stimulus Effort

[T]he Fed said Wednesday that it would postpone any retreat from its monetary stimulus campaign for at least another month and quite possibly until next year. The Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, emphasized that economic conditions were improving. But he said the Fed still feared a turn for the worse.

He noted that Congressional Republicans and the White House were hurtling toward an impasse over government spending.  … And the Fed undermined its own efforts when it declared in June that it intended to begin a retreat by the end of the year, causing investors to begin immediately demanding higher interest rates on mortgage loans and other financial products, a trend that the Fed said Wednesday was threatening to slow the economy.

The fiscal policy deadlines will have passed – and the issues probably resolved – by the time the Fed meets in late October.

Thursday:
• 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 341 thousand from 292 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.25 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales at a 5.35 million annual rate (SAAR).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 9.3 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

Calculated Risk

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