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Thursday: Industrial Production, Unemployment Claims, Homebuilder Survey, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

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Just a highlight of a few prices …

Brent oil futures are down to .78 per barrel, down from 0 a year ago.

National gasoline prices are down to .18 per gallon and under .00 in many states.  This is down from .35 per gallon a year ago.   If oil prices stay at this level, national gasoline prices will probably fall under .00.

30 year fixed mortgage rates are down to 3.90% down from 4.38% a year ago.  Loan officer Logan Mohtashami notes:

Right now, people who bought their homes in late 2013 and early 2014 may be good candidates to refinance their mortgages. Having said that, refinance activity is down 72% from the peak in May of 2013 because many already have lower rates and this recent move down won’t mean much to them. Therefore, people who can take advantage of these lower rates will only be a small pool of home owners. For those with the sufficient equity to eliminate their private mortgage insurance due to recent home prices gains, could benefit by refinancing. Others may benefit by combining their first and second loans into one at a new loan as well.

As I noted earlier, we will not see a significant increase in refinance activity at these rates, because so many people refinanced in 2012 and early 2013 at even lower rates.  Still – for some people as Logan notes – refinancing now makes sense.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 290 thousand from 287 thousand.

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.0%.

• At 10:00 AM, the October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 59, unchanged from 59 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, down from 22.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
Calculated Risk

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