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Thursday: Q1 GDP Revision, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales


From the WSJ: Contracting Economy? What to Watch in Thursday’s Report on U.S. GDP

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast it will show GDP contracted at a 0.6% annual rate in the first three months of the year. …

Since the recession ended in June 2009, U.S. GDP growth has dipped into the red only once: the first quarter of 2011, when economic output contracted at a 1.3% rate.

It appears likely to happen again. But economists aren’t worried about a prolonged downturn. Most have chalked up the weak first quarter to transitory factors like the brutal winter weather, and expect to see a significant rebound this spring.

Economists frequently blame weakness on the weather … but sometimes it really is the weather!

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 317 thousand from 326 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Q1 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.6% annualized in Q1, revised down from the advance estimate of a 0.1% increase.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 1% increase in the index.
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