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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 GDP

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On the MBA Purchase Index: This morning I mentioned a WSJ article Smaller Mortgage Lenders Lead Field. This suggests that the MBA Purchase Index might be understating purchase activity if smaller lenders (not in the survey) are gaining share.  MBA’s Mike Fratantoni told me today:

[I]n the last couple of years … independent mortgage bankers have accounted for a fast growing share of the purchase market … We have actively recruited independents and smaller banks to get better coverage of the purchase market. … It is likely that many of the lenders not in the survey have a higher purchase share and lower refi share.

It appears these small independent lenders are focusing on the purchase market (probably marketing through real estate agents – and selling the loans to Fannie and Freddie).  A result of this change in market share is the Purchase Index is probably understating the increase in purchase activity.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 322 thousand from 316 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the is the second estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.1% annualized in Q3, revised up from the advance estimate of 2.8%.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for October. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in October orders.
Calculated Risk

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